David Beard· Nov 1, 2024

Beard said Republicans are all but certain to capture the West Virginia Senate seat being vacated by Joe Manchin, giving them one guaranteed pickup toward Senate control. He also argued that while a Tester comeback in Montana isn't impossible, no one should expect him to hang on.

“They're almost certainly going to take the West Virginia Senate seat that Joe Manchin previously held.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Downballot (podcast) · read the original →

2 checkable claims — 2 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 2 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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2 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“That's pretty much the one example that Tester has to point to... There's a lot of other races where it hasn't worked, so it's not impossible, but I think nobody should be expecting it.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+101 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-mt
election year:
2024
skill:
101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
it's not impossible, but I think nobody should be expecting it
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Tim Sheehy
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana
decided in the:
general
they said:
Tim Sheehy
days before the vote when called:
4
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“So Republicans have one safe flip in their favor. They're almost certainly going to take the West Virginia Senate seat that Joe Manchin previously held.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+101 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-wv
election year:
2024
skill:
101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Independent
in their words:
almost certainly going to take
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Jim Justice
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in West Virginia
decided in the:
general
they said:
Jim Justice
days before the vote when called:
4
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.