Derek Brown· Apr 8, 2026
Brown says Ty Simpson is the clear bust of this quarterback/prospect group while defending Fernando Mendoza as a clean evaluation, and he treats Carnell Tate as a long-established top-ten talent who could even go inside the top five.
“I think if we're talking about bus players, get you know, Ty Simpson all day, I think that's that's the clear bust to me.”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
2 checkable claims — 1 draft bust call and 1 mock draft pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
1 of 2 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
2 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksCarnell TateApr 8, 2026
Carnell Tate to be picked “top ten pick” (picks 1–10)
“because I'm like, dude, he's always been a top ten pick of we talking about top ten or now top five. I mean, you can make a case for the Giants, you can make a case for the Tennessee Titans to take him at four or five.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Carnell Tate
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- top ten pick (picks 1–10)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Draft Bust CallsTy SimpsonApr 8, 2026
Ty Simpson to disappoint at the next level
“I think if we're talking about bus players, get you know, Ty Simpson all day, I think that's that's the clear bust to me.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Blaine GrisakRoster Spot Calls · Ty SimpsonHit · 100After the Rams' first preseason game, Grisak predicted the full 53-man roster, naming three quarterbacks, four running backs, five receivers, five tight ends, nine offensive linemen, four linebackers, six defensive linemen, four edge rushers, five cornerbacks, five safeties and three special teamers, with Dean Connors headed for the practice squad instead.
- Dharya SharmaRoster Spot Calls · Carnell TateHit · 100Previewing the Titans' preseason opener, Sharma identifies five receivers as roster locks, expects Bryce Oliver to make the 53 on special teams value, and predicts Will Levis will not be on Tennessee's roster by September, likely being moved for a late-round pick.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 92Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day.
- Bucky BrooksMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 81In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13.
- Rich EisenMock Draft Picks · Ty SimpsonHit · 100Eisen argues that if Ty Simpson does go in the first round, it will be in the bottom third of the round.
- Bucky BrooksMock Draft Picks · Ty SimpsonHit · 100Brooks argued Ty Simpson's value matches the bottom of the first round or the second round, not a top-six pick, and graded receiver Germie Bernard as a middle-of-the-second-round prospect.
More draft bust calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- John MiddlekauffDraft Bust Calls · Caleb WilliamsMiss · 0Middlekauff expects either Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson to win this year's MVP, calling them the two best players in the league. He is pessimistic on the Bears, forecasting six or seven wins and saying he'd bet Caleb Williams doesn't work out as a franchise quarterback. He also sees Oklahoma's John Mattier as a first-round pick who'll be in the Heisman mix.
- John MiddlekauffDraft Bust Calls · Anthony RichardsonHit · 100Middlekoff's bold predictions, as relayed on the show, have the Patriots and Colts making the playoffs; he also argues the Colts whiffed on Anthony Richardson, comparing him to Trey Lance.
- Carter BahnsDraft Bust Calls · J.J. McCarthyPendingBahns argues McCarthy's Minnesota tenure was a bust and that he is unlikely to ever live up to his No. 10 overall draft billing, predicting the Giants' low-cost gamble won't pay off and that he may not even beat out Jameis Winston for the starting job.
- John GreenDraft Bust Calls · T.J. SandersPendingGreen expects the Bills to place second-year defensive lineman T.J. Sanders on injured reserve while Phidarian Mathis returns from suspension to the active roster, and argues Sanders is already trending toward bust status relative to his No. 41 overall selection.
- Blaine GrisakDraft Bust Calls · Quentin JohnstonPendingGrisak argues the Rams still need a third wide receiver and lists five trade candidates they should explore, while judging both Quentin Johnston and Xavier Legette as first-round receivers who have not lived up to their draft billing.
- Carter BahnsDraft Bust Calls · Marvin Harrison Jr.PendingBahns argues that Marvin Harrison Jr., the No. 4 overall pick in 2024, is failing to live up to his draft slot and is headed toward being a first-round bust before he reaches free agency.