Steve Deace· Nov 5, 2024

On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%.

“And while I sincerely pray Trump wins, and I do believe that he will, I am now at peace and contented now with this outcome.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Steve Deace Show · read the original →

2 checkable claims — 1 race margin and 1 race winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 2 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 49 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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2 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race MarginsNov 5, 2024
“In in 2016, Trump won with 46% of the popular vote because he won the electoral college. Do you guys believe he... Give me an over under. Does he go over or under that in the popular vote here today in this election? Over. Over. I I I think it's an easy over.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 98+2 skill
How this was scored
race:
2024-president
election year:
2024
skill:
2
topic:
elections
what happened:
49.8
in their words:
an easy over 46% of the popular vote
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
vote_share
whose number:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
98
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:
electoral-college
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
they won:
yes
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the certified margin:
86
their party:
Republican
their range:
46,100
the naive guess said:
50
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“And while I sincerely pray Trump wins, and I do believe that he will, I am now at peace and contented now with this outcome.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:
electoral-college
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race margins

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.