2026 Illinois gubernatorial election
Governors · November 3, 2026 · not yet held
The ballot
- Collin Corbett (Independent)—
- Darren Bailey (Republican)—
- JB Pritzker (Democratic, incumbent)—
Beside the pundits
Two outside readings of the same race, never graded: what the market prices and what the polls average. The pundits' calls are read against them, not scored by them.
The market · Polymarket · October 3, 2026
- JB Pritzker97¢
- Darren Bailey3¢
A price in cents is the market's probability. Prices move; this is the day's close as we read it.
The 1 most recent poll
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Victory Research | 2025-11-20 – 2025-11-24 | 1208 LV | JB Pritzker 54% · Darren Bailey 34% |
The field, week by week
Each pundit's latest pick as of each week's end, so a bar is the room as it stood that week — not how many calls were made.
What the field called
Who the pundits on record picked to win, most picked first.
- JB Pritzker2 picks
Every claim about this race (2)
Newest first. A grade appears once the result is certified and the claim is scored.
Tom Bevan: JB Pritzker wins IL governorship (2026)
Race Winners · Oct 2, 2026 · 2026 Illinois gubernatorial election · the take
PendingTom Bevan: JB Pritzker wins IL governorship (2026)
Race Winners · Sep 22, 2026 · 2026 Illinois gubernatorial election · the take
Pending