2026 U.S. Senate election in Arkansas
Senate · November 3, 2026 · called
The ballot
The race is called; the shares are final once the result is certified.
- Hallie Shoffner (Democratic)—
- Jeff Wadlin (Libertarian)—
- Tom Cotton (Republican, incumbent)Won—
Tom Cotton by — in the general · held by the Republican party going in · source: wikipedia-2026
Beside the pundits
Two outside readings of the same race, never graded: what the market prices and what the polls average. The pundits' calls are read against them, not scored by them.
The market · Polymarket · November 3, 2026
- Tom Cotton97¢
- Hallie Shoffner2¢
A price in cents is the market's probability. This is the last price we read before the polls closed; prices taken after the vote are not shown. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any market or sportsbook. Not betting or financial advice.
The polls · VoteHub · 2 polls in 21 days · through October 28, 2026
- Tom Cotton52.5%
- Hallie Shoffner40.0%
- Jeff Wadlin4.5%
Tom Cotton by 12.5 on average. The latest poll from each pollster in the window, averaged line by line; sponsors and partisan polls are listed below so a reader can weigh them.
The 5 most recent polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| GrayHouse (REP) · for America One Policies | 2026-10-27 – 2026-10-28 | 509 LV | Tom Cotton 55% · Hallie Shoffner 39% · Jeff Wadlin 4% |
| Hendrix College · for Talk Business & Politics | 2026-10-08 – 2026-10-13 | 709 LV | Tom Cotton 50% · Hallie Shoffner 41% · Jeff Wadlin 5% |
| Grayhouse | 2026-09-30 – 2026-10-04 | 550 LV | Tom Cotton 51% · Hallie Shoffner 40% · Jeff Wadlin 4% |
| J.L. Partners | 2026-08-14 – 2026-08-18 | 803 LV | Tom Cotton 51% · Hallie Shoffner 35% · Jeff Wadlin 4% |
| GrayHouse (REP) · for America One Policies | 2026-02-07 – 2026-02-09 | 550 LV | Tom Cotton 58% · Hallie Shoffner 36% |
The field, week by week
Each pundit's latest pick as of each week's end, so a bar is the room as it stood that week — not how many calls were made.
What the field called
Who the pundits on record picked to win, most picked first.
- Tom Cotton1 pick · won
Every claim about this race (1)
Newest first. A winner call is graded once the race is called and confirmed; a margin or share once the result is certified.
Geoffrey Skelley: Tom Cotton wins AR Senate (2026) — “Arkansas 96%”
Race Winners · Oct 8, 2026 · 2026 U.S. Senate election in Arkansas · the take
Hit · 100
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