Ayrton OstlyApr 17, 2026

Ausley walked through their final seven-round mock draft, having the 49ers take Utah offensive tackle Caleb Lomu at No. 27, Peter Woods to Houston at 28, TJ Parker to Kansas City at 29, Zion Young to the Chargers at 30, Arvel Reese to Arizona at 3, Dallas trading up to 8, Denver taking Mason Thomas at 58, the 49ers taking Malachi Lawrence at 62 and VJ Payne at 133.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On 49ers (podcast)Hear the original

3 of 9calls landed3 hits · 3 close calls · 3 misses · 1 waiting

54.4Average accuracyout of 100, across 9 calls

50A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

9 of 10Settled1 still waiting

1Waitingnot graded yet

What Ayrton Ostly said

For the in the first round, number 27 overall, the San Francisco forty niners take offensive tackle Caleb Lomu, Utah youths.

Ayrton Ostly, the lead quote

Where it was said: Locked On 49ers (podcast)
The episode: 49ERS SQUAD SHOW: 49ers FINAL MOCK DRAFT, Building Through the Trenches
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidApr 17
GradedOct 1

Box score, by kind

HitCloseMissWaiting

Group	Hits	Close	Misses	Waiting
Mock Draft Picks	3	3	3	0
Team Draft Slot Calls	0	0	0	1
All	3	3	3	1

How each call scored

10 checkable claims — 9 mock draft picks and 1 team draft slot call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 17 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

9 of 10 have settled so far, averaging 54.4 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Where this call stands in the room

Dallas Cowboys · 2026 season · overall pick

Ayrton Ostly — 8 overall pickthe room — 4 calls from 4 punditsmedian 8 overall pick

Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question. Where the dots land says where this take sits, not whether it is right — nothing here is settled yet. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.

Their call against what happened

overall pick

28They said

29What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

Mock Draft Picks3 hits · 3 close calls · 3 missesShow ▸

Peter Woods to be picked at number 28
“you have Peter Woods mocked one pick after Caleb Lomu. You got him going number 28 for the Houston Texans.”
Peter Woods Houston Texans
Went 29mocked at 28
95.76Hit
mock order 80 − 50 for a shuffle = 30 × 1 difficulty = +30 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
30
player:
Peter Woods
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
95.76
baseline:
50
actual pick:
29
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
95.76
predicted pick:
28
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
80
Think this is wrong?
Malachi Lawrence to be picked at number 62
“40 move back to 62 overall and take edge Malachi Lawrence out of UCF.”
Malachi Lawrence San Francisco 49ers
Went 23mocked at 62
18.46Miss
mock order 80 − 50 for a shuffle = 30 × 1 difficulty = +30 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
30
player:
Malachi Lawrence
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
18.46
baseline:
50
actual pick:
23
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
18.46
predicted pick:
62
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
80
Think this is wrong?
R Mason Thomas to be picked at number 58
“I have the San Francisco forty niners trading out of number 58 overall because the Denver Broncos hop on the phone and go, hey. We want Edge, our Mason Thomas out of Oklahoma.”
R Mason Thomas Denver Broncos
Went 40mocked at 58
45.85Close
mock order 80 − 50 for a shuffle = 30 × 1 difficulty = +30 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
30
player:
R Mason Thomas
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
45.85
baseline:
50
actual pick:
40
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
45.85
predicted pick:
58
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
80
Think this is wrong?
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 3
“the Arbel Reese move, which is who you have mocked to the Cardinals at three”
Arvell Reese Arizona Cardinals
Went 5mocked at 3
91.7Hit
mock order 80 − 50 for a shuffle = 30 × 1 difficulty = +30 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
30
player:
Arvell Reese
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
91.7
baseline:
50
actual pick:
5
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
91.7
predicted pick:
3
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
80
Think this is wrong?
Zion Young to be picked at number 30
“And you got Zion Young from Missouri, Dwayne's guy, going to the Los Angeles Chargers at 30.”
Zion Young Los Angeles Chargers
Went 45mocked at 30
52.21Close
mock order 80 − 50 for a shuffle = 30 × 1 difficulty = +30 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
30
player:
Zion Young
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
52.21
baseline:
50
actual pick:
45
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
52.21
predicted pick:
30
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
80
Think this is wrong?
T.J. Parker to be picked at number 29
“and then his teammate, TJ Parker, 29 to the Kansas City Chiefs”
T.J. Parker Kansas City Chiefs
Went 35mocked at 29
77.11Close
mock order 80 − 50 for a shuffle = 30 × 1 difficulty = +30 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
30
player:
T.J. Parker
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
77.11
baseline:
50
actual pick:
35
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
77.11
predicted pick:
29
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
80
Think this is wrong?
Victor Payne to be picked at number 133
“you have them at one thirty three taking VJ Payne out of Kansas State”
Victor Payne San Francisco 49ers
Went 228mocked at 133
1.63Miss
mock order 80 − 50 for a shuffle = 30 × 1 difficulty = +30 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
30
player:
Victor Payne
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
1.63
baseline:
50
actual pick:
228
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
1.63
predicted pick:
133
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
80
Think this is wrong?
Caleb Lomu to be picked at number 27
“For the in the first round, number 27 overall, the San Francisco forty niners take offensive tackle Caleb Lomu, Utah youths.”
Caleb Lomu San Francisco 49ers
Went 28mocked at 27
95.76Hit
mock order 80 − 50 for a shuffle = 30 × 1 difficulty = +30 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
30
player:
Caleb Lomu
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
95.76
baseline:
50
actual pick:
28
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
95.76
predicted pick:
27
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
80
Think this is wrong?
Emmanuel Pregnon to be picked at number 37
“He has him marked number thirty seventh overall to the New York Giants.”
Emmanuel Pregnon New York Giants
Went 88mocked at 37
10.98Miss
mock order 80 − 50 for a shuffle = 30 × 1 difficulty = +30 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
30
player:
Emmanuel Pregnon
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
10.98
baseline:
50
actual pick:
88
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
10.98
predicted pick:
37
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
80
Think this is wrong?

Team Draft Slot Calls1 waitingShow ▸

Dallas Cowboys to pick at number 8
“I had them trading up to number eight with New Orleans to do to get that done.”
Dallas Cowboys
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?