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Pete Prisco· Oct 22, 2026

Prisco was the lone writer to take the Patriots on Thursday night, 28-27 over the Bears, and picked the Bengals to upset the Ravens 24-23 in Week 7.

“Prisco's pick: Patriots 28-27 over Bears”

published in writing · CBS Sports · read the original →

2 checkable claims — 2 score predictions — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 2 have settled, averaging 44.1 out of 100, against 43.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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Who this take is about

The games in this take

2 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing. Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  • Score PredictionsCincinnati BengalsOct 22, 2026

    Cincinnati Bengals 24 — Ravens 23

    “Pete Prisco — Bengals (+3) 24-23 over Ravens. From Prisco: "...The improved Bengals defense will do the rest. Upset."”

    Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 0+83.5 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    35-13
    skill:
    83.5
    they picked:
    CIN
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    50
    baseline:
    0
    difficulty:
    1.67
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    22
    weeks left when called:
    12
    naive home margin:
    −0.28
    predicted margin:
    1

    Closing line (Oct 25): Bengals by 3, total 46.5 · this 24–23 calls a closer game (Bengals by 1) and more points (47). Graded on the margin called, not on the spread.

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  • Score PredictionsNew England PatriotsOct 22, 2026

    New England Patriots 28 — Bears 27

    “Prisco's pick: Patriots 28-27 over Bears”

    Miss · 38Scored 38.1a naive guess scored 86.37-80.62 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    24-30
    skill:
    −80.62
    they picked:
    NE
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    38.1
    baseline:
    86.37
    difficulty:
    1.67
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    6
    weeks left when called:
    12
    naive home margin:
    0.28
    predicted margin:
    1

    Closing line (Oct 22): Bears by 3, total 50.5 · this 28–27 calls a Patriots win (by 1; the line gave the Patriots 42%) and more points (55).

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