Joe GibbsSep 10, 2026
In a Week 1 referee-tendency preview, Gibbs picks the Texans to beat the Bills in a close game at NRG Stadium and the Vikings to beat the Packers at home, while leaning on officiating trends for totals and spreads.
Published in writing · Sharp Football AnalysisRead the original
What Joe Gibbs said
As for the winner, until the Bills prove they can handle business at NRG Stadium, the Texans as a slight home underdog is too good to pass up, making them the selection in a down-to-the-wire contest.
- Where it was published
- Sharp Football Analysis
- The piece
- NFL Referee Assignment for Week 1, Impact on NFL Betting
- The original
- Read the original
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- Tell us and we will look
- SaidSep 10
- PlayedSep 13
- GradedSep 15
How the call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveOne checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.
The call scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
Game Outcome PicksHouston Texans
Houston Texans to beat Bills
What happenedBills 36–31Bills at Texans0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillClosing line (Sep 13): Bills by 1.5 · a toss-up, Bills 50%, Texans 50%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 36-31
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
The game in this take
every pundit’s pick on eachWho this take is about
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