Gregg Rosenthal#39 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 19, 2025

Rosenthal restates their preseason Super Bowl pick of the Ravens beating the Lions, agrees with Cowboys, Texans and Patriots picks in Week 3, takes the Ravens over Detroit in a high-scoring game they peg at 41-31, and calls Jacksonville a playoff team that could land the AFC's seven seed.

Said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast)Hear the original

1 of 8calls landed1 hit · 1 close call · 6 misses · all settled

18.2Average accuracyout of 100, across 8 calls

29.5A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

8 of 8Settlednone still waiting

#39Gregg Rosenthal’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Gregg Rosenthal said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

I love points. I think it's like forty one to thirty one.

Gregg Rosenthal, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: Around the NFL (podcast)
The episode: Week 3 Picks with Cynthia Frelund
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

SaidSep 19, 2025
GradedAug 5–17, 2026

1Detroit Lions to reach the Super Bowl“I'm convinced that this is going to be an elite Lions offense. That's why I have them in the Super Bowl”
2Houston Texans to beat Jags“I think that the Textan's top the Jags. / I'm on your side too... That was my pick on game debut.”
3Jacksonville Jaguars to take the top seed“I think they could be the seven seed, for instance in the AFC.”
4New England Patriots to beat Steelers“The Patriots ooh, I do agree with you on this, but I'm like a little freaked out... I'm with you. I think I think it's close”
5Dallas Cowboys to beat Chicago Bears“I did hit the Cowboys game. We agree on that... that's ultimately why I picked the Cowboys.”
6Baltimore Ravens to win the Super Bowl“the Super Bowl this year is going to feature your Detroit Lions and my Baltimore Ravens because that was my super Bowl pick before the year, with the Ravens winning”
7Baltimore Ravens 41 — Lions 31“I love points. I think it's like forty one to thirty one.”
8Jacksonville Jaguars to make the playoffs“the Jacksonville run game looks really good. I think they I think they're a proof team. I think they could be the seven seed, for instance in the AFC.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Detroit Lions to reach the Super Bowl¹	Conference Champions	NE and SEA won	0	0	0
Houston Texans to beat Jags²	Game Outcome Picks	—	0	100	−189
Jacksonville Jaguars to take the top seed³	Seeding, Byes and Home Field	—	0	0	0
New England Patriots to beat Steelers⁴	Game Outcome Picks	—	0	0	0
Dallas Cowboys to beat Chicago Bears⁵	Game Outcome Picks	—	0	100	−189
Baltimore Ravens to win the Super Bowl⁶	Super Bowl Picks	SEA won it	0	0	0
Baltimore Ravens 41 — Lions 31⁷	Score Predictions	—	45.24	35.78	+17.87
Jacksonville Jaguars to make the playoffs⁸	Playoff Picks	Made the playoffs	100	0	+189
8 calls · 1 hit · 1 close call · 6 misses · all settled			18.2	29.5

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

8 checkable claims — 3 game outcome picks, 1 conference champion, 1 playoff pick, 1 score prediction, 1 seeding, byes and home field and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 8 have settled, averaging 18.2 out of 100, against 29.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Conference Champions Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions to reach the Super Bowl
What happenedNE and SEA wonpicked DET
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.89difficulty0skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
they picked:
DET
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
champions:
NE, SEA
difficulty:
1.89
the naive guess:
last season's conference champions
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
16
reached the Super Bowl:
no
lost the conference final:
no
Think this is wrong?
2Game Outcome Picks Houston Texans
Houston Texans to beat Jags
VerdictMiss
0Miss · naive 100
0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.89difficulty−189skill
Closing line (Sep 21): Jaguars by 1.5 · a toss-up, Texans 47%, Jaguars 53%.
How this was scored
won:
JAX
score:
10-17
skill:
−189
they picked:
HOU
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
JAX
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
16
Think this is wrong?
3Seeding, Byes and Home Field Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars to take the top seed
VerdictMiss
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.89difficulty0skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
they picked:
JAX
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
checked as:
seeds 5–7 visit a wild-card game — the bracket cannot separate them further
actual tier:
host
difficulty:
1.89
the naive guess:
where they finished last season (missed the playoffs)
weeks in the season:
18
claimed seed:
7
claimed tier:
visitor
weeks left when called:
16
Think this is wrong?
4Game Outcome Picks New England Patriots
New England Patriots to beat Steelers
VerdictMiss
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.89difficulty0skill
Closing line (Sep 21): Steelers by 1.5 · a toss-up, Steelers 52%, Patriots 48%.
How this was scored
won:
PIT
score:
21-14
skill:
0
they picked:
NE
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
NE
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
16
Think this is wrong?
5Game Outcome Picks Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys to beat Chicago Bears
VerdictMiss
0Miss · naive 100
0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.89difficulty−189skill
Closing line (Sep 21): Cowboys by 1.5 · a toss-up, Cowboys 53%, Bears 47%.
How this was scored
won:
CHI
score:
14-31
skill:
−189
they picked:
DAL
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
CHI
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
16
Think this is wrong?
6Super Bowl Picks Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens to win the Super Bowl
What happenedSEA won itpicked BAL
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.89difficulty0skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
they picked:
BAL
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
champion:
SEA
runner up:
NE
the naive pick:
PHI
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
16
Think this is wrong?
7Score Predictions Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens 41 — Lions 31
VerdictClose
45.24Close · naive 35.78
45.24this call35.78a naive guess9.46better than naive1.89difficulty+17.87skill
Closing line (Sep 22): Ravens by 4.5, total 53.5 · this 41–31 calls a bigger Ravens win (by 10) and more points (72).
How this was scored
score:
38-30
skill:
17.87
they picked:
BAL
season:
2025
accuracy:
45.24
baseline:
35.78
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
8
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
2.03
predicted margin:
10
Think this is wrong?
8Playoff Picks Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars to make the playoffs
What happenedMade the playoffs
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.89difficulty+189skill
How this was scored
team:
JAX
skill:
189
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive guess said:
no
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
yes
weeks left when called:
16
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 8 settled calls, each counted once
18.2naive 29.5