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Ron ElvingOct 31, 2022

Elving said it is very hard to see Democrats keeping the House, pointing to historical midterm losses for a new president's party, and suggested the real suspense lies with the Senate.

Said on air, transcribed by us · The NPR Politics PodcastHear the original

100Hit · out of 100
Control of CongressThe callsettled
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
+101Skillafter difficulty

What Ron Elving said

It seems as though it's very hard to make a case for the Democrats holding on in the house.
Ron Elving’s words, quoted for attribution
Where it was said
The NPR Politics Podcast
The episode
Cindy Axne Rode In On 2018's Blue Wave. Now, Is The Tide Going Out?
The original
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  1. SaidOct 31, 2022
  2. Election DayNov 8, 2022
  3. GradedOct 9, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Control of Congress

    “It seems as though it's very hard to make a case for the Democrats holding on in the house.”

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.01difficulty+101skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    election year:
    2022
    skill:
    101
    topic:
    elections
    in their words:
    very hard to make a case for the Democrats holding on in the house
    result from:
    house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
    chamber:
    2022-house
    who controls it:
    Republican
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    they said:
    Republican
    days before the vote when called:
    7
    difficulty:
    1.01
    the naive guess:
    the party in control going in keeps it
    Election Day:
    2022-11-08
    who controlled it before:
    Democratic
    Think this is wrong?
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