Rich Eisen#38 of 87 NFL pundits · Apr 21, 2025
Eisen says Cam Ward is a near-lock to be taken first overall by the Titans, expects Shedeur Sanders to land with a team picking in the twenties, agrees Ashton Jeanty could go top five, thinks Jalen Milroe goes in the late twenties, and frames the Steelers as a team that will make the playoffs rather than bottom out.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast)Hear the original
What Rich Eisen said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromCam Ward's gonna go first overall.
- Where it was said
- Overreaction Monday (podcast)
- The episode
- NFL Draft: It's Too Quiet...Something Insane Is Going To Happen
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidApr 21, 2025
- GradedAug 13, 2026
- 1Cam Ward to be picked at number 1“Cam Ward's gonna go first overall... The Titans, Rich, as you know, number one on the clock breaking news, they're gonna take Cameron Ward That's correct. Seemingly. Right? 99.9%. I think it's gonna happen.”
- 2Pittsburgh Steelers to make the playoffs“they're not good enough... But they're also not gonna miss the playoffs to be bad enough to be able to totally reset their franchise.”
- 3Ashton Jeanty to be picked “top five” (picks 1–5)“I think Ashton Gentry is going in the top five. / I think he could too... This is not an overreaction.”
- 4Jalen Milroe to be picked “late twenties”“Miller going to the draft, I think, is an indication to me that he is going in that late twenties.”
- 5Shedeur Sanders to be picked “drafted by a team in the twenties”“I don't think that's an overreaction, and that would mean that he he he gets drafted by a team in the in in the twenties.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward to be picked at number 11 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 1 | 100 | 50 | — | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers to make the playoffs2 | Playoff Picks | Made the playoffs | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Ashton Jeanty to be picked “top five” (picks 1–5)3 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 6 | 95.76 | 50 | — | |
| Jalen Milroe to be picked “late twenties”4 | Mock Draft Picks | — | — | — | — | |
| Shedeur Sanders to be picked “drafted by a team in the twenties”5 | Mock Draft Picks | — | — | — | — | |
| 5 calls · 3 hits · 2 waiting | 98.6 | 66.7 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive5 checkable claims — 4 mock draft picks and 1 playoff pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
3 of 5 have settled so far, averaging 98.6 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
1Mock Draft PicksCam WardTennessee Titans
Cam Ward to be picked at number 1
What happenedWent 1mocked at 1100Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Cam Ward
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
2Playoff PicksPittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers to make the playoffs
What happenedMade the playoffs100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- PIT
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
3Mock Draft PicksAshton Jeanty
Ashton Jeanty to be picked “top five” (picks 1–5)
What happenedWent 695.76Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Ashton Jeanty
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- top five (picks 1–5)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
Jalen Milroe to be picked “late twenties”
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
5Mock Draft PicksShedeur Sanders
Shedeur Sanders to be picked “drafted by a team in the twenties”
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
98.6naive 66.7
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
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