Marcus Mosher· Aug 5, 2024
Mosher ranks all 32 NFL teams heading into the 2024 preseason, with the Chiefs first and the Patriots last. Along the way he predicts the Chiefs reach at least the AFC Championship Game, the Bills win double-digit games, the Steelers hover around 10 wins, the Broncos win about five games, the Buccaneers return to the postseason, and the Patriots earn the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft.
“It's hard to envision the Chiefs not reaching the AFC Championship Game, at minimum, again this year.”
published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original (as archived Aug 5, 2024) → · live page
9 checkable claims — 3 season win totals, 1 conference champion, 1 depth chart call, 1 playoff pick, 1 power ranking, 1 surprise team call and 1 team draft slot call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
8 of 9 have settled so far, averaging 74.9 out of 100, against 80 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
9 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Conference ChampionsKansas City ChiefsAug 5, 2024
Kansas City Chiefs to reach the Super Bowl
“It's hard to envision the Chiefs not reaching the AFC Championship Game, at minimum, again this year.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- champions:
- PHI,KC
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- reached the Super Bowl:
- yes
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Season Win TotalsDenver BroncosAug 5, 2024
Denver Broncos to finish with 5 wins
“it wouldn't be a surprise if they only win five or so games this year”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 65-130 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- DEN
- naive:
- 8.25
- skill:
- -130
- what happened:
- 10
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 65
- predicted:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksTampa Bay BuccaneersAug 5, 2024
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs
“they have a quality roster and should make it back to the postseason in 2024”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- TB
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Team Draft Slot CallsNew England PatriotsAug 5, 2024
New England Patriots to pick at number 1
“The New England Patriots are the favorite to earn the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, which makes sense.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81a naive guess scored 95.76-15.9 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NE
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- they picked 3 the year before
- skill:
- -15.9
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 95.76
- actual pick:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Drake Maye to be 1st on the depth chart
“are likely to start a rookie quarterback in Drake Maye”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- NE
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Drake Maye
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsPittsburgh SteelersAug 5, 2024
Pittsburgh Steelers to finish with 10 wins
“the improved offensive line should allow them to hover around 10 wins once again”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 85+30 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- PIT
- naive:
- 9.25
- skill:
- 30
- what happened:
- 10
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 85
- predicted:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Power RankingsAug 5, 2024
“Today, we are ranking all 32 teams from 1 to 32 heading into the preseason.”
Close · 71Scored 71.04a naive guess scored 67.38+7.33 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 7.33
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 71.04
- baseline:
- 67.38
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 32
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsBuffalo BillsAug 5, 2024
Buffalo Bills to finish with 10 wins
“Expect the Bills to win double-digit games again this season and be a legit contender in the AFC.”
Close · 40Scored 40a naive guess scored 35+10 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- BUF
- naive:
- 9.75
- skill:
- 10
- what happened:
- 13
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 40
- baseline:
- 35
- predicted:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Surprise Team CallsArizona CardinalsAug 5, 2024
Arizona Cardinals to beat expectations
“the Arizona Cardinals will be a popular "sleeper" pick during the 2024 season”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Jake ArthurScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 98Arthur expects a close Chiefs win on Sunday Night Football at Arrowhead, predicting a final score of 27-23 for Kansas City.
More season win totals
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Colin CowherdSeason Win Totals · Dallas CowboysHit · 100Cowherd projects the NFC East with the Giants winning the division ahead of Philadelphia, Washington and Dallas, pegging the Cowboys as a six- or seven-win team. He also expects Malik Willis to land a big free-agent deal, Kayvon Thibodeaux to be moved, and Baltimore to lose Isaiah Likely, and he floats the Rams reaching on Ty Simpson late in round one.
- Richard ShermanSeason Win Totals · Green Bay PackersClose · 40Sherman previewed every division: he picked Seattle to win the NFC West on a tiebreaker over San Francisco (both 11-11 wins), the Lions over the Packers in the North, the Eagles to run away with the East, Tampa Bay in the South, and Kansas City, Buffalo and the Ravens' division rivals in the AFC. He picked an Eagles–Chiefs Super Bowl with Philadelphia repeating, Joe Burrow for MVP, and gave a top-five power ranking.
- John MiddlekauffSeason Win Totals · San Francisco 49ersClose · 60Middlekauff says Denver's floor is ten wins, predicts Miami implodes to four or five wins and a top-three-or-four draft slot with Tyreek Hill traded, thinks the 49ers beat expectations with nine or ten wins, sees the Patriots at eight or nine wins, calls the Chargers over 9.5 a lock, expects Jared Goff to make five or six Pro Bowls, and says the Packers are flying under the radar.
- Nick WrightSeason Win Totals · Los Angeles ChargersHit · 80Nick Wright gave his early AFC win-total leans: overs on the Jets, Ravens, Jaguars, Chiefs and Raiders, plus projected win ranges for the Dolphins, Texans, Chargers and Broncos, and predicted the Raiders take Ashton Jeanty at No. 6.
- Richard ShermanSeason Win Totals · Detroit LionsHit · 100Sherman picks the Chiefs to beat the Bills in the AFC Championship Game despite Buffalo's turnover dominance, and picks the Commanders to upset the Eagles in Philadelphia in the NFC Championship Game. He also expects Saquon Barkley to win Offensive Player of the Year, though he hedges that voters may give it to Lamar or Josh Allen.
- Chris BrockmanSeason Win Totals · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Brockman pitched that the Eagles are the NFL's best team and that Saquon Barkley will win MVP as the first non-quarterback since 2011. He also declared the AFC playoff field already set with six weeks to go, said the Cowboys will make the playoffs, predicted Buffalo would blast the 49ers, and reiterated his earlier call that Carolina would win five or six games.