Marcus Mosher#41 of 87 NFL pundits · Aug 5, 2024
Mosher ranks all 32 NFL teams heading into the 2024 preseason, with the Chiefs first and the Patriots last. Along the way they predict the Chiefs reach at least the AFC Championship Game, the Bills win double-digit games, the Steelers hover around 10 wins, the Broncos win about five games, the Buccaneers return to the postseason, and the Patriots earn the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft.
Published in writing · The 33rd TeamRead the original
What Marcus Mosher said
It's hard to envision the Chiefs not reaching the AFC Championship Game, at minimum, again this year.
- Where it was published
- The 33rd Team
- The piece
- 2024 NFL Power Rankings: Early Predictions at Start of Preseason
- The original
- The copy as archived Aug 5, 2024 · the live page
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidAug 5, 2024
- GradedAug 5–17, 2026
Box score, by kind
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conference Champions | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Season Win Totals | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Playoff Picks | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team Draft Slot Calls | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Depth Chart Calls | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Power Rankings | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Surprise Team Calls | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| All | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
How each call scored
9 checkable claims — 3 season win totals, 1 conference champion, 1 depth chart call, 1 playoff pick, 1 power ranking, 1 surprise team call and 1 team draft slot call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
8 of 9 have settled so far, averaging 74.9 out of 100, against 80 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Conference Champions1 hitShow ▸Hide ▾
Kansas City Chiefs to reach the Super Bowl
“It's hard to envision the Chiefs not reaching the AFC Championship Game, at minimum, again this year.”
PHI and KC wonpicked KC100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- champions:
- PHI, KC
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- reached the Super Bowl:
- yes
- lost the conference final:
- no
Season Win Totals1 hit · 1 close call · 1 missShow ▸Hide ▾
Denver Broncos to finish with 5 wins
“it wouldn't be a surprise if they only win five or so games this year”
10called 50Miss0 − 65 naive = −65 × 2 difficulty = −130 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- DEN
- naive:
- 8.25
- skill:
- −130
- what happened:
- 10
- season:
- 2024
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 65
- they said:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Pittsburgh Steelers to finish with 10 wins
“the improved offensive line should allow them to hover around 10 wins once again”
10called 10100Hit100 − 85 naive = 15 × 2 difficulty = +30 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- PIT
- naive:
- 9.25
- skill:
- 30
- what happened:
- 10
- season:
- 2024
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 85
- they said:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Buffalo Bills to finish with 10 wins
“Expect the Bills to win double-digit games again this season and be a legit contender in the AFC.”
13called 1040Close40 − 35 naive = 5 × 2 difficulty = +10 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- BUF
- naive:
- 9.75
- skill:
- 10
- what happened:
- 13
- season:
- 2024
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 40
- baseline:
- 35
- they said:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Playoff Picks1 hitShow ▸Hide ▾
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs
“they have a quality roster and should make it back to the postseason in 2024”
Made the playoffs100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- TB
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Team Draft Slot Calls1 hitShow ▸Hide ▾
New England Patriots to pick at number 1
“The New England Patriots are the favorite to earn the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, which makes sense.”
Picked at 4called 187.81Hit87.81 − 95.76 naive = −7.95 × 2 difficulty = −15.9 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- NE
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- they picked 3 the year before
- skill:
- −15.9
- season:
- 2024
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 95.76
- actual pick:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Depth Chart Calls1 hitShow ▸Hide ▾
Drake Maye to be 1st on the depth chart
“are likely to start a rookie quarterback in Drake Maye”
No. 1called No. 1 · by passing yards100Hit100 − 91.67 naive = 8.33 × 2 difficulty = +16.67 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- NE
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Drake Maye
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Power Rankings1 close callShow ▸Hide ▾
“Today, we are ranking all 32 teams from 1 to 32 heading into the preseason.”
71.04Close71.04 − 67.38 naive = 3.66 × 2 difficulty = +7.33 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 7.33
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 71.04
- baseline:
- 67.38
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 32
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Surprise Team Calls1 waitingShow ▸Hide ▾
Arizona Cardinals to beat expectations
“the Arizona Cardinals will be a popular "sleeper" pick during the 2024 season”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman expects Sean Fresch Jr. to clear waivers and return to the Broncos' practice squad, sees Riley Moss back from concussion for the Week 11 game at Las Vegas, and projects newly acquired Daiyan Henley to begin as the third inside linebacker behind Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad before likely moving into a starting role.Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman writes that Riley Moss may sit out the preseason finale against Minnesota but should be available for the Week 1 opener at Kansas City; they also suggest undrafted corners Sean Fresch Jr. and Brent Austin are being evaluated for practice squad spots.Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Chad Jensen · Roster Spot Calls · Jordan Turner · Miss 0
Jensen predicts Daiyan Henley's arrival will cut into Justin Strnad's snaps while Alex Singleton keeps playing virtually every down, and that Denver will return to a three-linebacker rotation after the Week 10 bye. They also expect one of Jordan Turner or Karene Reid — most likely Turner — to be waived to clear a roster spot.Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.Joshua Poniatowski · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Poniatowski names several trade targets, predicting Malik Willis underperforms this week against New England, that Omarion Hampton could become a viable RB2 if Adam Gase takes over play-calling, that Josh Downs gets traded (ideally to Kansas City, where they'd be a top-24 WR), that Brian Thomas Jr. could be dealt to the Rams or 49ers, and that Travis Kelce remains a consistent weekly TE.
More season win totals
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Nick Wright · Season Win Totals · Chicago Bears · Hit 100
Nick Wright lays out their season win-total picks (overs on Jaguars, Bears, Chiefs, Buccaneers, Raiders, Falcons; unders on Bengals, Colts, Broncos, Cowboys, Vikings, 49ers), playoff berth and miss calls, three division winners, a Chiefs-over-Buccaneers Super Bowl exacta, and five Week 1 picks.Damonza Byrd · Season Win Totals · Jacksonville Jaguars · Hit 100
Nick Wright's co-host picks the Jaguars over as their favorite of the six over bets and calls the Baltimore/Buffalo division-winner parlay a safe one.Gregg Rosenthal · Season Win Totals · Jacksonville Jaguars · Hit 100
Rosenthal's Week 1 picks: the Giants win at Washington, the Lions beat the Packers, and the Jaguars beat the Panthers; they also like the Jets over the Steelers and the Dolphins over the Colts, and expects Jacksonville to clear 7.5 wins.Gregg Rosenthal · Season Win Totals · Dallas Cowboys · Miss 0
Rosenthal expects a high-scoring Eagles-Cowboys kickoff game, guesses a scoreline around 41-27, still believes Dallas can clear its win total and reach the playoffs, likes the Giants to beat expectations with Jackson Dart taking over as starter early.Nick Wright · Season Win Totals · Baltimore Ravens · Miss 0
Nick Wright predicts Shedeur Sanders stays behind Dylan Gabriel on the Browns depth chart, forecasts a season where Flacco is benched a third of the way in, Gabriel then fails, Shedeur then fails, and Cleveland drafts a quarterback next year. They also make a long list of win-total, playoff and division calls across the AFC North and beyond.Nick Wright · Season Win Totals · Jacksonville Jaguars · Hit 100
In part two of their gambling show, Nick Wright ran through NFC (and recapped AFC) win-total picks, division winners and make/miss-the-playoffs bets, backing the Chiefs, Jaguars, Raiders, Bears, Buccaneers and Falcons to clear their totals while predicting Commanders, Bucs and Rams division titles.