Nick Wright#49 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 6, 2025
Nick Wright lays out their season win-total picks (overs on Jaguars, Bears, Chiefs, Buccaneers, Raiders, Falcons; unders on Bengals, Colts, Broncos, Cowboys, Vikings, 49ers), playoff berth and miss calls, three division winners, a Chiefs-over-Buccaneers Super Bowl exacta, and five Week 1 picks.
Said on air or in an interview · What's Wright? with Nick Wright (podcast)Hear the original
What Nick Wright said
Tampa over nine and a half is probably my favorite bet of all of these.
- Where it was said
- What's Wright? with Nick Wright (podcast)
- The episode
- What’s Wright - Best Of - Nick Wright's NFL Week 1 picks, predicting Chiefs' Super Bowl opponent, Belichick debut
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidSep 6, 2025
- GradedAug 5–Oct 9, 2026
Box score, by kind
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Too vague | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Win Totals | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Division Winners | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Game Outcome Picks | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Conference Champions | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seeding, Byes and Home Field | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Score Predictions | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Playoff Picks | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team Draft Slot Calls | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Super Bowl Picks | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Power Rankings | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Surprise Team Calls | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| All | 7 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 1 |
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
24 claims — 4 division winners, 4 game outcome picks, 4 season win totals, 3 playoff picks, 2 conference champions, 2 score predictions, 1 power ranking, 1 seeding, byes and home field, 1 super bowl pick, 1 surprise team call and 1 team draft slot call — the 23 we can check each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 12 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
22 of the 23 calls we can check have settled so far, averaging 33.1 out of 100, against 22 for a naive guess at the same calls.
The other one was too vague to check, so it is not graded.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
winsTheir call against what actually happened.
Season Win Totals1 hit · 1 close call · 1 miss · 1 too vague to checkShow ▸Hide ▾
Chicago Bears to finish with 9 wins
“The Bears over eight and a half at plus one point fifteen. I like everything about the team.”
11called over 8.5100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- CHI
- naive:
- 6.75
- skill:
- 200
- what happened:
- 11
- scored:
- hit or miss on the line
- season:
- 2025
- window:
- 9 to 17
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- under
- they said:
- over 8.5
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
San Francisco 49ers to finish with 7 wins
“I think that they are, you know, a seven to eight win team, so I will take under ten and a half for the Niners.”
12called 70Miss0 − 5 naive = −5 × 2 difficulty = −10 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- SF
- naive:
- 7.25
- skill:
- −10
- what happened:
- 12
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 5
- they said:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to finish with 11 wins
“Tampa over nine and a half is probably my favorite bet of all of these... I think that they are going to win at least eleven games, maybe twelve or thirteen.”
8called 1140Close40 − 75 naive = −35 × 2 difficulty = −70 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- TB
- naive:
- 9.25
- skill:
- −70
- what happened:
- 8
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 40
- baseline:
- 75
- they said:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“I have Kansas City. You just bet the Chiefs over every single year.”
—Too vague to checkToo vague to check: we could not tell what would count as right, so it stays on the record without a score.
Division Winners4 missesShow ▸Hide ▾
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the division
“We've got the Bucks to win the NFC South at Minus one fifteen”
0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- TB
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- TB
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
Buffalo Bills to win the division
“We got Baltimore plus Buffalo at plus one oh six. I'd say that's another safe one.”
0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- BUF
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
Baltimore Ravens to win the division
“So we got a division winner. We got Baltimore plus Buffalo at plus one oh six.”
0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- BAL
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
Kansas City Chiefs to win the division
“We got the Chiefs to win the West of the AFC West, sorry, at minus one fifteen... I'll take the Chiefs over the field.”
0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
Game Outcome Picks3 hits · 1 missShow ▸Hide ▾
Cincinnati Bengals to beat Cleveland
“It's not calling a Cleveland win. I just don't think Cincinnati is gonna dominate the game”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Closing line (Sep 7): Bengals by 5.5 · favorite pick, Bengals about 2 in 3 (68%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- CIN
- score:
- 17-16
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- CIN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- CLE
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Las Vegas Raiders to beat New England
“I think the Raiders win this game. And I'm getting two and a half points.”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Closing line (Sep 7): Patriots by 2.5 · underdog pick, Raiders 42%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- LV
- score:
- 20-13
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- LV
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- NE
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Buffalo Bills to beat Baltimore
“Buffalo getting one at home against Baltimore... Buffalo is too good of a team to be a home dog”
100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 7): Ravens by 1.5 · a toss-up, Ravens 54%, Bills 46%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 40-41
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- BUF
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Miami Dolphins to beat Colts
“I think Miami wins the game outright... I'll take Miami plus one at Indy”
0Miss0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Closing line (Sep 7): Colts by 1.5 · a toss-up, Dolphins 50%, Colts 50%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- IND
- score:
- 8-33
- skill:
- −200
- they picked:
- MIA
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- IND
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Conference Champions2 missesShow ▸Hide ▾
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to reach the Super Bowl
“We got Kansas City versus Tampa Bay and the Super Bowl exact plus fifty five hundred.”
NE and SEA wonpicked TB0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- TB
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE, SEA
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
Kansas City Chiefs to reach the Super Bowl
“We got Kansas City versus Tampa Bay and the Super Bowl exact plus fifty five hundred.”
NE and SEA wonpicked KC0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE, SEA
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
Seeding, Byes and Home Field1 missShow ▸Hide ▾
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to take the top seed
“I think the Bucks have a real shot to be the one seed in the NFC”
0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- TB
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- checked as:
- the number one seed is the bye, which the bracket names exactly
- actual tier:
- missed the playoffs
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where they finished last season (host)
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- claimed seed:
- 1
- claimed tier:
- bye
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Score Predictions2 hitsShow ▸Hide ▾
Cincinnati Bengals 21 — Cleveland 17
“twenty one to seventeen Cincinnati is a pretty likely outcome for this game”
92.86Hit92.86 − 47.55 naive = 45.31 × 2 difficulty = +90.61 skill
Closing line (Sep 7): Bengals by 5.5, total 47.5 · this 21–17 calls a closer game (Bengals by 4) and fewer points (38).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- score:
- 17-16
- skill:
- 90.61
- they picked:
- CIN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 92.86
- baseline:
- 47.55
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- 2.03
- predicted margin:
- 4
Las Vegas Raiders 21 — New England 20
“This feels to me like twenty one to twenty Raiders.”
85.71Hit85.71 − 38.16 naive = 47.55 × 2 difficulty = +95.1 skill
Closing line (Sep 7): Patriots by 2.5, total 44.5 · this 21–20 calls a Raiders win (by 1; the line gave the Raiders 42%) and fewer points (41).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- score:
- 20-13
- skill:
- 95.1
- they picked:
- LV
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 85.71
- baseline:
- 38.16
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 7
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- 2.03
- predicted margin:
- 1
Playoff Picks1 hit · 2 missesShow ▸Hide ▾
Jacksonville Jaguars to make the playoffs
“I think the Jags are going to make the playoffs.”
Made the playoffs100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- JAX
- skill:
- 200
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Kansas City Chiefs to make the playoffs
“Jags plus one eighty, Chiefs minus three eighty ... Those are make playoffs”
Missed the playoffs0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- KC
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 18
New York Giants to make the playoffs
“Giant Giants five to one for a quarter unit ... Those are make playoffs”
Missed the playoffs0Miss0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- NYG
- skill:
- −200
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Team Draft Slot Calls1 missShow ▸Hide ▾
Indianapolis Colts to pick at number 1
“The Colts under seven and a half at minus one thirty. This is my favorite of the unders. I think they could end up with the number one pick of the draft.”
Picked at 53called 110.51Miss10.51 − 18.46 naive = −7.95 × 2 difficulty = −15.9 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- IND
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- they picked 14 the year before
- skill:
- −15.9
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 10.51
- baseline:
- 18.46
- actual pick:
- 53
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Super Bowl Picks1 missShow ▸Hide ▾
Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl
“Kansas City defeat Tampa Bay at plus eleven thousand.”
SEA won itpicked KC0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champion:
- SEA
- runner up:
- NE
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Power Rankings1 missShow ▸Hide ▾
“I think the Chiefs are the best team in football. I think the Chargers are around the fourteenth best team in football.”
0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Surprise Team Calls1 waitingShow ▸Hide ▾
Las Vegas Raiders to beat expectations
“They're the team everyone thinks it's going to be bad that I think it's going to be good.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Miss 36
Prisco picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 23-14 on Thursday night and the Lions to beat the Patriots 30-24 in Munich.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 20-14 on Thursday night and takes the Packers over the Vikings 17-14 in a low-scoring Week 10 game.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders at home on Thursday night, projecting a 20-14 final score.Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Miss 36
Prisco picked the Giants to beat the Commanders at home in the Thursday night Week 10 game, 23-14, citing New York's dominant front seven containing Jayden Daniels.
More division winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Daniel DiBerardinis · Division Winners · Atlanta Falcons · Miss 0
Danny D predicts Sonny Styles goes in the top ten (maybe top five), doesn't think Ty Simpson goes before late first round, says Kenyon Sadiq lands with the Rams at 13, and picks the Falcons to win the NFC South while naming the Bengals an AFC bounce-back team. They also give a Final Four of Michigan, Florida, Purdue and Arizona with Michigan winning.Colin Cowherd · Division Winners · Los Angeles Chargers · Miss 0
Cowherd unveiled their top 10 NFL teams entering next season, with Seattle first, the Rams second and the Chiefs tenth, and separately picked the Chargers to win the AFC West.Cynthia Frelund · Division Winners · Houston Texans · Miss 0
Freeland's model has the Chargers winning straight up in Dallas, the Texans winning big over the Raiders and going on to win the AFC South, the Lions beating the Steelers by six, the Saints beating the Jets, and the Packers beating the Bears; they also see the AFC's Super Bowl representative being either Denver or Houston.Chris Brockman · Division Winners · Philadelphia Eagles · Hit 100
Brockman called the Broncos-Packers game the best of the day, said Denver looks poised to lock up the AFC's No. 1 seed and reach the AFC Championship Game, predicted the Bears win the NFC North and the Eagles win their division (though they think they lose to a five seed from the NFC West), and said Philip Rivers will be in the NFL in 2026.Rich Eisen · Division Winners · New England Patriots · Hit 100
Eisen said the Patriots are still likely to win the AFC East and won't be one-and-done, that the Chargers will end Dallas' season next week, that TreVeyon Henderson should out-snap Rhamondre Stevenson, that the NFC East race is over in Philadelphia's favor, and that the winner of the NFC West will be the NFC's No. 1 seed.Rich Eisen · Division Winners · New England Patriots · Hit 100
Eisen previewed week 15 games, predicting Joe Burrow would play well in their first home start back against Baltimore, and speculated on a possible Colts-Steelers wild card matchup. They also asserted the Chiefs will not win their division for a tenth straight year, keeping the Patriots' record of 11 straight division titles safe.