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Jared Dubin#60 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 8, 2026

Dubin picks the Cowboys to beat the Buccaneers 34-17 on Thursday night, arguing Dallas' offense is too much for Tampa Bay to handle. They also expect George Pickens to break out in this game as defenses focus on CeeDee Lamb.

Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original

29Miss · out of 100

Buccaneers 24–16What happenedcalled Cowboys by 17 · lost by 8

32.2A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge

28.57This callout of 100

#60Jared Dubin’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Jared Dubin said

Pick: Cowboys 34, Buccaneers 17

Our reading: Dallas Cowboys 34 — Buccaneers 17

Where it was published: CBS Sports
The piece: Cowboys vs. Buccaneers preview: Can Tampa Bay slow down CeeDee Lamb and high-powered Dallas offense?
The original: Read the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidOct 8
PlayedOct 8
GradedOct 9

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 28.6 out of 100, against 32.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

Score Predictions Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys 34 — Buccaneers 17
What happenedBuccaneers 24–16called Cowboys by 17 · lost by 8
28.57Miss · naive 32.2
28.57this call32.2a naive guess−3.63worse than naive1.78difficulty−6.45skill
Closing line (Oct 8): Cowboys by 9.5, total 49.5 · this 34–17 calls a bigger Cowboys win (by 17) and more points (51).
How this was scored
score:
24-16
skill:
−6.45
they picked:
DAL
season:
2026
accuracy:
28.57
baseline:
32.2
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
8
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.52
predicted margin:
17
Think this is wrong?

The game in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

Buccaneers at CowboysBuccaneers 24Cowboys 1628 calls →

Who this take is about

Dallas Cowboys

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

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