Max McCall· Nov 2, 2024

Co-writing Split Ticket's pre-election piece, he says the presidency is a pure toss-up but that Harris is the nominal favorite at a 53% chance, so she is the pick if forced to choose; after the Selzer poll, Split Ticket's forecast moves Iowa to Leans Republican with Trump a 76% favorite there.

“Harris is a nominal favorite, and so if you forced us to make a pick for the presidency, we'd have to go with her.”

published in writing · Split Ticket · read the original →

2 checkable claims — 2 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 2 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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2 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 2, 2024
“this poll alone moves Iowa to Leans Republican in our forecast, with Trump being a 76% favorite to keep the state in his column”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-ia
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
Leans Republican in our forecast, with Trump being a 76% favorite
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Iowa
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
2
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 2, 2024
“our forecast remains that the presidency is a pure tossup, with Kamala Harris at a 53% chance to win and Donald Trump at a 47% chance to win. Harris is a nominal favorite, and so if you forced us to make a pick for the presidency, we'd have to go with her.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-president
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
Kamala Harris at a 53% chance to win
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:
electoral-college
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
2
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.