2024 U.S. presidential election in Iowa

Presidency · November 5, 2024 · certified

The ballot

The deciding round's shares, from the certified result.

Donald Trump (Republican)Won6 EV · 55.7% · 927,019
Kamala Harris (Democratic)42.5% · 707,278
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Independent)0.8% · 13,122
Chase Oliver (Libertarian)0.4% · 7,218

Donald Trump by 13.2 points in the general · held by the Republican party going in · source: fec-2024-president

The field, week by week

Each pundit's latest pick as of each week's end, so a bar is the room as it stood that week — not how many calls were made.

Nov 3Nov 10

Donald Trump 6· 6 pundits on record this week

What the field called

Who the pundits on record picked to win, most picked first.

Donald Trump6 picks · won

Every claim about this race (8)

Newest first. A grade appears once the result is certified and the claim is scored.

Sam Wang: Donald Trump: a margin of +12 points in IA's presidential vote (2024)
Race Margins · Nov 5, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election in Iowa · the take
Hit · 88
Tom Bevan: Donald Trump wins IA's presidential vote (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 5, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election in Iowa · the take
Hit · 100
Sean Trende: Donald Trump wins IA's presidential vote (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 5, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election in Iowa · the take
Hit · 100
Robby Soave: Donald Trump wins IA's presidential vote (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 4, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election in Iowa · the take
Hit · 100
Bob Vander Plaats: Donald Trump: somewhere between five and eight or eight and ten points in IA's presidential vote (2024)
Race Margins · Nov 4, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election in Iowa · the take
Close · 48
Logan Phillips: Donald Trump wins IA's presidential vote (2024) — “Now I have it up to around twenty or you know, twenty five”
Race Winners · Nov 4, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election in Iowa · the take
Hit · 100
Lakshya Jain: Donald Trump wins IA's presidential vote (2024) — “Leans Republican in our forecast, with Trump being a 76% favorite”
Race Winners · Nov 2, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election in Iowa · the take
Hit · 100
Max McCall: Donald Trump wins IA's presidential vote (2024) — “Leans Republican in our forecast, with Trump being a 76% favorite”
Race Winners · Nov 2, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election in Iowa · the take
Hit · 100