2024 U.S. presidential election

Presidency · November 5, 2024 · certified

The ballot

The deciding round's shares, from the certified result.

Donald Trump (Republican)Won312 EV · 49.8% · 77,302,580
Kamala Harris (Democratic)226 EV · 48.3% · 75,017,613
Jill Stein (Green)0.6% · 862,049
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Independent)0.5% · 756,393
Chase Oliver (Libertarian)0.4% · 650,126
Cornel West (Independent)0.1% · 82,644

Donald Trump by 86.0 points in the electoral college · held by the Democratic party going in · flipped · source: fec-2024-president

The field, week by week

Each pundit's latest pick as of each week's end, so a bar is the room as it stood that week — not how many calls were made.

Oct 27Nov 3Nov 10

Donald Trump 34Kamala Harris 23· 57 pundits on record this week

What the field called

Who the pundits on record picked to win, most picked first.

Donald Trump81 picks · won
Kamala Harris36 picks · lost

Every claim about this race (133)

Newest first. A grade appears once the result is certified and the claim is scored.

Erick-Woods Erickson: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 6, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Lanny Davis: Kamala Harris wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 6, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Miss · 0
Sam Wang: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 5, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Steve Deace: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 5, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Steve Deace: Donald Trump: an easy over 46% of the popular vote in the presidency (2024)
Race Margins · Nov 5, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Henry Olsen: Kamala Harris: up in the popular vote by about a point and some tenths in the presidency (2024)
Race Margins · Nov 5, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Pending
Henry Olsen: Donald Trump: 297 electoral votes in the presidency (2024)
Race Margins · Nov 5, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 85
Tim Miller: Kamala Harris: 276 electoral votes in the presidency (2024)
Race Margins · Nov 5, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Close · 50
David Frum: Donald Trump: 47% of the vote in the presidency (2024)
Race Margins · Nov 5, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Close · 72
Robby Soave: Kamala Harris: 270 electoral votes in the presidency (2024)
Race Margins · Nov 5, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Close · 56
Rising (The Hill): Kamala Harris wins the presidency (2024) — “a landslide”
Race Winners · Nov 5, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Miss · 0
Ben Shapiro: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 5, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Ryan Grim: Kamala Harris: 270 electoral votes in the presidency (2024)
Race Margins · Nov 5, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Close · 56
Erick-Woods Erickson: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024) — “I think Trump still has the edge”
Race Winners · Nov 5, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Michael Duncan: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 5, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
David Shuster: Kamala Harris wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 5, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Miss · 0
Mark McKinnon: Kamala Harris wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 5, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Miss · 0
Lakshya Jain: Kamala Harris: 270 electoral votes in the presidency (2024)
Race Margins · Nov 4, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Close · 56
Lakshya Jain: Kamala Harris wins the presidency (2024) — “a 53% chance of winning”
Race Winners · Nov 4, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Miss · 0
Steve Bannon: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 4, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Buck Sexton: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 4, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Bob Vander Plaats: Donald Trump: a knock on the door of 300 electoral college votes in the presidency (2024)
Race Margins · Nov 4, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Pending
Bob Vander Plaats: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 4, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Steve Deace: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 4, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Steve Bannon: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 4, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Mike Murphy: Kamala Harris wins the presidency (2024) — “low to medium confidence”
Race Winners · Nov 4, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Miss · 0
John Heilemann: Kamala Harris wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 4, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Miss · 0
Bill Kristol: Kamala Harris wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 4, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Miss · 0
Elizabeth Stauffer: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 4, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Isaac Saul: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 4, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Ben Shapiro: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 4, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Isaac Saul: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 4, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Saagar Enjeti: Donald Trump: 271 electoral votes in the presidency (2024)
Race Margins · Nov 4, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Close · 59
Krystal Ball: Kamala Harris wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 4, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Miss · 0
Erick-Woods Erickson: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 4, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Erick-Woods Erickson: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 4, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Isaac Saul: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 3, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Ben Shapiro: Kamala Harris wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 3, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Miss · 0
Newt Gingrich: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024) — “a very real likelihood”
Race Winners · Nov 3, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Lakshya Jain: Kamala Harris wins the presidency (2024) — “Kamala Harris at a 53% chance to win”
Race Winners · Nov 2, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Miss · 0
Max McCall: Kamala Harris wins the presidency (2024) — “Kamala Harris at a 53% chance to win”
Race Winners · Nov 2, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Miss · 0
Clay Travis: Kamala Harris wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 2, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Miss · 0
Megyn Kelly: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 1, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Clay Travis: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 1, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Justin Robert Young: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 1, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Steve Deace: Donald Trump: 297 electoral votes in the presidency (2024)
Race Margins · Nov 1, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 85
Mehdi Hasan: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024) — “Trump has a very good chance of being president again”
Race Winners · Nov 1, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Michael Cohen: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 1, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Tom LoBianco: Kamala Harris wins the presidency (2024) — “the fundamentals still favor Harris”
Race Winners · Nov 1, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Miss · 0
Justin Robert Young: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 1, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Isaac Saul: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 1, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Ryan Grim: Kamala Harris: 270 electoral votes in the presidency (2024)
Race Margins · Nov 1, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Close · 56
Ben Shapiro: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 1, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Kirk Bado: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024) — “it's still Trump's race to lose”
Race Winners · Nov 1, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Jacob Rubashkin: Kamala Harris wins the presidency (2024) — “You'd still rather be Harris than Trump at this point”
Race Winners · Nov 1, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Miss · 0
Stu Burguiere: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024) — “I think the momentum is toward Trump... I'd rather be Donald Trump in this race”
Race Winners · Oct 31, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Stephen L. Miller: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024) — “The momentum seems to favor Trump... I would rather be Trump”
Race Winners · Oct 31, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Clay Travis: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 31, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Buck Sexton: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 31, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Steve Deace: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 31, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Ben Shapiro: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 31, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Brent Buchanan: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024) — “a complete toss-up still with a slight Trump edge”
Race Winners · Oct 31, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Josh Holmes: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 31, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Nate Silver: Kamala Harris wins the presidency (2024) — “a seventy one point four percent probability of winning the popular vote”
Race Winners · Oct 31, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Miss · 0
Nate Silver: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024) — “a forty five point three percent chance of winning the electoral college [for Harris]; basically fifty five forty five Trump”
Race Winners · Oct 31, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Hugh Hewitt: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 30, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Tim Miller: Kamala Harris wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 30, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Miss · 0
Jon Lovett: Kamala Harris wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 30, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Miss · 0
Carol Markowitz: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 30, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Tim Miller: Kamala Harris wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 30, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Miss · 0
Steve Deace: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 30, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Isaac Saul: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024) — “a campaign well positioned to win this election”
Race Winners · Oct 30, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Nate Silver: Kamala Harris wins the presidency (2024) — “a fifty three percent chance”
Race Winners · Oct 30, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Miss · 0
Steve Bannon: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 30, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Gabe Fleisher: Kamala Harris wins the presidency (2024) — “basically tossup with Harris' slight edge”
Race Winners · Oct 30, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Miss · 0
Cenk Uygur: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 30, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Mike Murphy: Kamala Harris wins the presidency (2024) — “definitely gonna win the popular vote”
Race Winners · Oct 29, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Miss · 0
Mike Murphy: Kamala Harris wins the presidency (2024) — “only by a whisker”
Race Winners · Oct 29, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Miss · 0
Clay Travis: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 29, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Bill O'Reilly: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 29, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Steve Deace: Donald Trump: 297 electoral votes in the presidency (2024)
Race Margins · Oct 29, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 85
Steve Deace: Kamala Harris: 241 electoral votes in the presidency (2024)
Race Margins · Oct 29, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 85
Hugh Hewitt: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 29, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Buck Sexton: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 28, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Clay Travis: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 28, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Bob Vander Plaats: Donald Trump: north of 300 in the presidency (2024)
Race Margins · Oct 28, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Bill Kristol: Kamala Harris wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 28, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Miss · 0
Saagar Enjeti: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024) — “a more better than not shot of winning”
Race Winners · Oct 28, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Krystal Ball: Kamala Harris wins the presidency (2024) — “Probably not”
Race Winners · Oct 28, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Miss · 0
Erick-Woods Erickson: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024) — “tilting toward the Republicans”
Race Winners · Oct 28, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Liz Cheney: Kamala Harris wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 27, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Miss · 0
Buck Sexton: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 26, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Clay Travis: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 26, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Lakshya Jain: Kamala Harris wins the presidency (2024) — “a 53% chance of winning the Electoral College”
Race Winners · Oct 26, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Miss · 0
Wosny Lambre: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024) — “Kamala's inevitable defeat”
Race Winners · Oct 26, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Cenk Uygur: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024) — “My intuition says Trump”
Race Winners · Oct 26, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Buck Sexton: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 25, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Clay Travis: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 25, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Clay Travis: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 25, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Nomiki Konst: Kamala Harris wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 25, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Miss · 0
Ben Shapiro: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 25, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Michael Knowles: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 25, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Andrew Heaton: Kamala Harris wins the presidency (2024) — “I am $5 confident Kamala Harris is gonna win”
Race Winners · Oct 25, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Miss · 0
Bill Scher: Kamala Harris wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 25, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Miss · 0
Bill Scher: Kamala Harris: 270 electoral votes in the presidency (2024)
Race Margins · Oct 25, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Close · 56
AB Stoddard: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 24, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Ryan Girdusky: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024) — “probably fifty five percent to forty five percent”
Race Winners · Oct 24, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Clay Travis: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 24, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
James Carville: Kamala Harris wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 24, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Miss · 0
David Pakman: Kamala Harris wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 24, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Miss · 0
Nate Silver: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024) — “a fifty three percent chance of winning the electoral college”
Race Winners · Oct 24, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Ghad Saad: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 24, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Tom Bevan: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024) — “I think Trump has probably got a slight edge right now”
Race Winners · Oct 23, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Isaac Saul: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 23, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Simon Rosenberg: Kamala Harris wins the presidency (2024) — “far more likely to break for Harris than Trump”
Race Winners · Oct 23, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Miss · 0
Buck Sexton: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024) — “likely future president”
Race Winners · Oct 23, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Ben Shapiro: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024) — “likely to be the next president of The United States”
Race Winners · Oct 23, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Brent Buchanan: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024) — “I would give Donald Trump an edge”
Race Winners · Oct 23, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Erick-Woods Erickson: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 23, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Isaac Saul: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 23, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Simon Rosenberg: Kamala Harris wins the presidency (2024) — “far more likely to break for”
Race Winners · Oct 23, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Miss · 0
Erick-Woods Erickson: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 23, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Kirk Bado: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 23, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Saagar Enjeti: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 23, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Erick-Woods Erickson: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 22, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Mike Murphy: Kamala Harris wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 22, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Miss · 0
Clay Travis: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 22, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Erick-Woods Erickson: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 22, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Doug Schoen: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024) — “more likely than not to win”
Race Winners · Oct 22, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Doug Schoen: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024) — “a narrow but clear favorite to win the election”
Race Winners · Oct 22, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Megyn Kelly: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 22, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
Douglas Wilson: Donald Trump wins the presidency (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 22, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Hit · 100
David Pakman: Kamala Harris wins the presidency (2024) — “the most likely outcome”
Race Winners · Oct 22, 2024 · 2024 U.S. presidential election · the take
Miss · 0