Jared Dubin#60 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 19, 2026

Dubin picks the 49ers to beat the Commanders on Monday night, projecting a 27-16 San Francisco win behind an efficient passing attack against a soft Washington pass defense.

Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original

2 of 2calls landed2 hits · all settled

94.1Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls

93.1A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

1Games calledeveryone’s picks below

#60Jared Dubin’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Jared Dubin said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

Pick: 49ers 27, Commanders 16

Jared Dubin, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was published: CBS Sports
The piece: 49ers vs. Commanders prediction: Can San Francisco remain unbeaten? Full 'Monday Night Football' breakdown
The original: Read the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidOct 19
PlayedOct 19
GradedOct 20

1San Francisco 49ers to beat Commanders“And I don't trust the Commanders to do quite enough to keep up with their explosive offense. Pick: 49ers 27, Commanders 16”
2San Francisco 49ers 27 — Commanders 16“Pick: 49ers 27, Commanders 16”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
San Francisco 49ers to beat Commanders¹	Game Outcome Picks	49ers 23–17	100	100	0
San Francisco 49ers 27 — Commanders 16²	Score Predictions	49ers 23–17	88.1	86.23	+3.21
2 calls · 2 hits · all settled			94.1	93.1

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

2 checkable claims — 1 game outcome pick and 1 score prediction — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 2 have settled, averaging 94.1 out of 100, against 93.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Game Outcome Picks San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers to beat Commanders
What happened49ers 23–17Commanders at 49ers
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.72difficulty0skill
Closing line (Oct 19): 49ers by 7.5 · favorite pick, 49ers about 3 in 4 (77%).
How this was scored
won:
SF
score:
17-23
skill:
0
they picked:
SF
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
SF
difficulty:
1.72
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
13
Think this is wrong?
2Score Predictions San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers 27 — Commanders 16
What happened49ers 23–17called 49ers by 11 · won by 6
88.1Hit · naive 86.23
88.1this call86.23a naive guess1.87better than naive1.72difficulty+3.21skill
Closing line (Oct 19): 49ers by 7.5, total 51.5 · this 27–16 calls a bigger 49ers win (by 11) and fewer points (43).
How this was scored
score:
17-23
skill:
3.21
they picked:
SF
season:
2026
accuracy:
88.1
baseline:
86.23
difficulty:
1.72
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
6
weeks left when called:
13
naive home margin:
0.22
predicted margin:
11
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once
94.1naive 93.1