Skip to main content
MissedTakes
Menu

Ryan MathewsOct 4, 2026

Takes the Lions over the Panthers, 31-21.

Published in writingRead the original

40Close · out of 100
Panthers 32–26What happenedcalled Lions by 10 · lost by 6
88.1A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
40.48This callout of 100
−87.14Skillafter difficulty

What Ryan Mathews said

Ryan Mathews (3-0): Lions 31-21
Our reading: Detroit Lions 31 — Panthers 21
The piece
NFL Week 4 expert picks, score predictions: Lions at Panthers
The original
Read the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidOct 4
  2. PlayedOct 4
  3. GradedOct 5

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 40.5 out of 100, against 88.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Score PredictionsDetroit Lions

    Detroit Lions 31 — Panthers 21

    What happenedPanthers 32–26called Lions by 10 · lost by 6
    40.48Close · naive 88.1
    40.48this call88.1a naive guess−47.62worse than naive1.83difficulty−87.14skill

    Closing line (Oct 4): Lions by 4.5, total 52.5 · this 31–21 calls a bigger Lions win (by 10) and fewer points (52).

    How this was scored
    score:
    26-32
    skill:
    −87.14
    they picked:
    DET
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    40.48
    baseline:
    88.1
    difficulty:
    1.83
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    6
    weeks left when called:
    15
    naive home margin:
    1
    predicted margin:
    10
    Think this is wrong?

The game in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

Who this take is about

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

Others on the same people

More score predictions

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Discussed alongside these