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Ben KraussSep 28, 2024

Krauss expects Republicans to control the Senate after the election, arguing that a President Harris would most likely have to work with a GOP Senate majority.

Published in writing · Slow BoringRead the original

100Hit · out of 100
Control of CongressThe callsettled
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
+105Skillafter difficulty

What Ben Krauss said

If Kamala Harris wins the presidency, she will most likely need to contend with a Republican- controlled Senate.
Ben Krauss’s words, quoted for attribution
Where it was published
Slow Boring
The piece
Congress needs to invest in itself
The original
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  1. SaidSep 28, 2024
  2. Election DayNov 5, 2024
  3. GradedOct 9, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Control of Congress

    “If Kamala Harris wins the presidency, she will most likely need to contend with a Republican- controlled Senate.”

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.05difficulty+105skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    election year:
    2024
    skill:
    105
    topic:
    elections
    in their words:
    most likely
    result from:
    senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
    chamber:
    2024-senate
    who controls it:
    Republican
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    they said:
    Republican
    days before the vote when called:
    37
    difficulty:
    1.05
    the naive guess:
    the party in control going in keeps it
    Election Day:
    2024-11-05
    who controlled it before:
    Democratic
    Think this is wrong?
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More control of congress

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.