Ryan TracyFeb 23, 2026
Running a draft simulator for the Chiefs, Tracy selected and defended a haul of Caleb Downs at No. 9, offensive tackle Monroe Freleng at 40, running back Jadirion Price at 74, defensive tackle Grayson Holt at 109, and slot receiver Kevin Coleman later on. They also expect Tacan Thornton (or at minimum JuJu Smith-Schuster) to be back with Kansas City.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Chiefs (podcast)Hear the original
What Ryan Tracy said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromhe was the top rated guy on the board, so I grabbed him.
- Where it was said
- Locked On Chiefs (podcast)
- The episode
- BOLD: Kansas City Chiefs SELECT Caleb Downs, Skipping Edge—Is This the Next Eric Berry IMPACT Pick?
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidFeb 23
- GradedAug 13
- 1Grayson Holt to be picked at number 109“they do come back and get a defensive lineman in the fourth at one zero nine ... The highest pass production defensive tackle in this draft is Grayson Holt.”
- 2Monroe Freeling to be picked at number 40“you turn around and take an offensive tackle at 40 ... But Monroe Freleng is is a guy that is climbing up boards fast”
- 3Jadarian Price to be picked at number 74“you come back and you get Jadirion Price, his running mate at Notre Dame at 74”
- 4Caleb Downs to be picked at number 9“Starts off, Caleb Downs. ... he was the top rated guy on the board, so I grabbed him.”
- 5Tyquan Thornton to move to Kansas City Chiefs“I'm banking on Taycan Thornton probably coming back. If not, JuJu Smith Schuster for sure.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grayson Holt to be picked at number 1091 | Mock Draft Picks | Went undrafted | 0 | 50 | +50 | |
| Monroe Freeling to be picked at number 402 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 19 | 40.26 | 50 | +50 | |
| Jadarian Price to be picked at number 743 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 32 | 16.21 | 50 | +50 | |
| Caleb Downs to be picked at number 94 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 11 | 91.7 | 50 | +50 | |
| Tyquan Thornton to move to Kansas City Chiefs5 | Trade and Signing Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| 5 calls · 1 hit · 1 close call · 2 misses · 1 waiting | 37 | 50 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive5 checkable claims — 4 mock draft picks and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
4 of 5 have settled so far, averaging 37 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
1Mock Draft PicksGrayson HoltKansas City Chiefs
Grayson Holt to be picked at number 109
What happenedWent undraftedmocked at 1090Miss · naive 50100this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=50better than naive×1difficulty=+50skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Grayson Holt
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- undrafted
- outcome:
- went undrafted in 2026; has not appeared on an NFL roster
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- undrafted
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0
- predicted pick:
- 109
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
2Mock Draft PicksMonroe FreelingKansas City Chiefs
Monroe Freeling to be picked at number 40
What happenedWent 19mocked at 4040.26Close · naive 50100this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=50better than naive×1difficulty=+50skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Monroe Freeling
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 40.26
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 19
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 40.26
- predicted pick:
- 40
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
3Mock Draft PicksJadarian PriceKansas City Chiefs
Jadarian Price to be picked at number 74
What happenedWent 32mocked at 7416.21Miss · naive 50100this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=50better than naive×1difficulty=+50skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Jadarian Price
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 16.21
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 32
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 16.21
- predicted pick:
- 74
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
4Mock Draft PicksCaleb DownsKansas City Chiefs
Caleb Downs to be picked at number 9
What happenedWent 11mocked at 991.7Hit · naive 50100this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=50better than naive×1difficulty=+50skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Caleb Downs
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 9
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
5Trade and Signing CallsTyquan ThorntonKansas City Chiefs
Tyquan Thornton to move to Kansas City Chiefs
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once
37naive 50
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.Joshua Poniatowski · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Poniatowski names several trade targets, predicting Malik Willis underperforms this week against New England, that Omarion Hampton could become a viable RB2 if Adam Gase takes over play-calling, that Josh Downs gets traded (ideally to Kansas City, where they'd be a top-24 WR), that Brian Thomas Jr. could be dealt to the Rams or 49ers, and that Travis Kelce remains a consistent weekly TE.Jordan Dajani · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
After reporting that Colts receiver Josh Downs requested a trade, they identify five clubs as plausible landing spots for them: the Rams, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders, and suggests Las Vegas could also give them a long-term extension.Mike Kadlick · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Kadlick names the Chiefs, Patriots and 49ers as the three best trade landing spots for Colts wide receiver Josh Downs ahead of the Nov. 10 deadline.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Chris Simms · Mock Draft Picks · Malachi Corley · Miss 11
Simms named the Bears the NFL's best overall offense and best rushing offense, the Bengals the best passing offense, Seattle the best total defense, Minnesota the best pass defense and Tampa Bay the best run defense; they also called Tristan Wirfs the league's best offensive lineman, projected Miami's Malachi Toney as a top-15 pick, and predicted a 30-14 Jaguars win in Baltimore.Philip Hughes · Mock Draft Picks · Kyle Kennard · Miss 34
Evaluating edge rusher Kyle Kennard ahead of the draft, the account projected them as a Day 2 selection.Blaine Grisak · Mock Draft Picks · Brian Thomas Jr. · Hit 84
Grisak argues the Rams should not trade a second-round pick for Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr., calling it too great a risk and too high a cost. In an embedded tweet of their own from the 2024 pre-draft period, they suggested the Rams could select Thomas at pick No. 19.Charlie Campbell · Mock Draft Picks · Xavier Williams · Miss 0
Campbell's draft stock report projects Indiana WR Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in 2027, Mississippi State CB Kelley Jones as a first-rounder, Tennessee DT Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick, and Texas OT Trevor Goosby as a top-10 pick, while suggesting Arch Manning could still be a first-rounder if they declare.