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Trevor RipleyOct 4, 2026

Ripley picks Minnesota to beat Miami in Week 4, improving to 4-0, predicting a lopsided low-scoring win for the Vikings behind Brian Flores' defense against a Dolphins offense without De'Von Achane.

Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original

71Close · out of 100
Vikings 15–10What happenedcalled Vikings by 17 · won by 5
90.48A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
71.43This callout of 100
−34.86Skillafter difficulty

What Trevor Ripley said

Vikings: 23 Dolphins: 6
Our reading: Minnesota Vikings 23 — Dolphins 6
Where it was published
Sports Illustrated
The piece
Vikings vs. Dolphins: Who Wins and Why in Week 4
The original
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  1. SaidOct 4
  2. PlayedOct 4
  3. GradedOct 5

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 71.4 out of 100, against 90.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Score PredictionsMinnesota Vikings

    Minnesota Vikings 23 — Dolphins 6

    What happenedVikings 15–10called Vikings by 17 · won by 5
    71.43Close · naive 90.48
    71.43this call90.48a naive guess−19.05worse than naive1.83difficulty−34.86skill

    Closing line (Oct 4): Vikings by 10, total 38.5 · this 23–6 calls a bigger Vikings win (by 17) and fewer points (29).

    How this was scored
    score:
    10-15
    skill:
    −34.86
    they picked:
    MIN
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    71.43
    baseline:
    90.48
    difficulty:
    1.83
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    5
    weeks left when called:
    15
    naive home margin:
    1
    predicted margin:
    17
    Think this is wrong?

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