David Pakman· Oct 29, 2024

Pakman calls the non-competitive presidential states a week out: Florida for Trump, with New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts going to Harris. He also says Kari Lake is about to lose the Arizona Senate race to Ruben Gallego, and treats Pennsylvania as genuinely uncertain, laying out scenarios in both directions.

“So Kari Lake lost in 2022, will almost certainly lose in 2024”

said on air, transcribed by us · The David Pakman Show · read the original →

5 checkable claims — 5 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 5 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 80 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

5 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersOct 29, 2024
“The election will not depend on New Jersey, which has nearly half a million Puerto Ricans. Kamala Harris is going to win that.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-nj
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Kamala Harris
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in New Jersey
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
6
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 29, 2024
“Carrie Lake is about to lose her race for senate in Arizona... In all likelihood, Carrie Lake will be defeated once again... So Kari Lake lost in 2022, will almost certainly lose in 2024”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+101 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-az
election year:
2024
skill:
101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Independent
in their words:
In all likelihood, Carrie Lake will be defeated once again
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Ruben Gallego
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Arizona
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ruben Gallego
days before the vote when called:
6
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 29, 2024
“And similarly, Trump is not going to win New York. Trump is lying and saying we might win New York and New Jersey, but he is not going to.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-ny
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Kamala Harris
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in New York
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
6
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 29, 2024
“Massachusetts has 330,000 Puerto Ricans. Massachusetts is going to go to Harris.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-ma
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Kamala Harris
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Massachusetts
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
6
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 29, 2024
“Florida has 1,200,000 Puerto Rican people living within it. But most likely, Florida is gone to Trump.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-fl
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
most likely, Florida is gone to Trump
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Florida
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
6
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.