2024 U.S. Senate election in Arizona
Senate · November 5, 2024 · certified
The ballot
The deciding round's shares, from the certified result.
- Ruben Gallego (Democratic, incumbent)Won50.1%
- Kari Lake (Republican)47.7%
- Eduardo Quintana (Green)—
Ruben Gallego by 2.4 points in the general · held by the Independent party going in · flipped · source: wikipedia-2024-senate
The field, week by week
Each pundit's latest pick as of each week's end, so a bar is the room as it stood that week — not how many calls were made.
What the field called
Who the pundits on record picked to win, most picked first.
- Ruben Gallego3 picks · won
- Kari Lake2 picks · lost
Every claim about this race (6)
Newest first. A grade appears once the result is certified and the claim is scored.
David Frum: Ruben Gallego wins AZ Senate (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 5, 2024 · 2024 U.S. Senate election in Arizona · the take
Hit · 100Erick-Woods Erickson: Kari Lake wins AZ Senate (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 5, 2024 · 2024 U.S. Senate election in Arizona · the take
Miss · 0Newt Gingrich: Kari Lake wins AZ Senate (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 5, 2024 · 2024 U.S. Senate election in Arizona · the take
Miss · 0Lakshya Jain: Ruben Gallego wins AZ Senate (2024) — “Leans Democratic”
Race Winners · Nov 4, 2024 · 2024 U.S. Senate election in Arizona · the take
Hit · 100David Pakman: Ruben Gallego wins AZ Senate (2024) — “In all likelihood, Carrie Lake will be defeated once again”
Race Winners · Oct 29, 2024 · 2024 U.S. Senate election in Arizona · the take
Hit · 100Erick-Woods Erickson: Kari Lake: will get crushed in AZ Senate (2024)
Race Margins · Oct 23, 2024 · 2024 U.S. Senate election in Arizona · the take
Pending