Peter Schrager#19 of 87 NFL pundits · Mar 1, 2025
Schrager laid out their top 10 prospects entering the 2025 combine, with Travis Hunter first, Abdul Carter second and Tyler Warren third, and attached draft-range calls to several of them — Will Johnson in the first round, Mason Graham a top-five pick, Ashton Jeanty a first-rounder, Tyler Warren not escaping the top ten, and Cam Ward a top-five to top-ten pick who will start as a rookie.
Said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast)Hear the original
What Peter Schrager said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI've got Travis Hunter as my number one prospect out of Colorado.
- Where it was said
- Move the Sticks (podcast)
- The episode
- GMFB Saturday Special: In or Out, Sean McDermott, and Peter's Top 10 NFL Prospects
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidMar 1, 2025
- GradedAug 5–Oct 1, 2026
- 1Tetairoa McMillan to be 1st wide receiver off the board“He is my number one wide receiver in this draft.”
- 2Ashton Jeanty to be picked “a first round pick” (picks 1–32)“Ashton gent is one of the top running backs in this draft and will obviously be a first round pick”
- 3Top Player Lists“let's get started with the top ten combined prospects going into the combine. It's my list... It's number ten Michigan defensive back Will Johnson... Number nine is tight end Colston Loveland... my number eight prospect is Arizona wide receiver Tatoroa McMillan... cam Ward is my seventh overall prospect... that is Jalen Walker... Mason Graham is the number five prospect... number four... Ashton gent... Number three... Mister Tyler Warren... Number two, I've got... Abdul Carter... I've got Travis Hunter as my number one prospect”
- 4Cam Ward to be 1st on the depth chart“We'll be an NFL starter next year”
- 5Mason Graham to be picked “a top five pick” (picks 1–5)“He is a top five pick and I wouldn't be shocked if he goes even higher than that.”
- 6Tyler Warren to be picked “as high as top five. He will not escape the top ten” (picks 1–5)“I think he might go as high as top five. He will not escape the top ten.”
- 7Will Johnson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)“Look for him to go in the first round, of course, in April's draft.”
- 8Cam Ward to be picked “a top five, top ten pick” (picks 1–5)“cam Ward great prospect. We'll be an NFL starter next year and will be a top five, top ten pick, no doubt.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan to be 1st wide receiver off the board1 | Position Order Calls | — | 70.71 | 13.29 | +57.42 | |
| Ashton Jeanty to be picked “a first round pick” (picks 1–32)2 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 6 | 100 | 50 | — | |
| “let's get started with the top ten combined prospects going…”3 | Top Player Lists | — | 66.67 | 50 | +33.33 | |
| Cam Ward to be 1st on the depth chart4 | Depth Chart Calls | No. 1 | 100 | 91.67 | +16.67 | |
| Mason Graham to be picked “a top five pick” (picks 1–5)5 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 5 | 100 | 50 | — | |
| Tyler Warren to be picked “as high as top five. He will not escape the top ten” (picks 1–5)6 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 14 | 67.71 | 50 | — | |
| Will Johnson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)7 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 47 | 52.21 | 50 | — | |
| Cam Ward to be picked “a top five, top ten pick” (picks 1–5)8 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 1 | 100 | 50 | — | |
| 8 calls · 4 hits · 4 close calls · all settled | 82.2 | 50.6 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive8 checkable claims — 5 mock draft picks, 1 depth chart call, 1 position order call and 1 top player list — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 8 have settled, averaging 82.2 out of 100, against 50.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
positional finishTheir call against what actually happened.
1Position Order CallsTetairoa McMillan
Tetairoa McMillan to be 1st wide receiver off the board
VerdictClose70.71Close · naive 13.2970.71this call−13.29a naive guess=57.42better than naive×1difficulty=+57.42skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- naming one of the 31 at random averages 13.29
- skill:
- 57.42
- player:
- Tetairoa McMillan
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 70.71
- baseline:
- 13.29
- position:
- wide receiver
- class size:
- 31
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 2
- predicted order:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
2Mock Draft PicksAshton Jeanty
Ashton Jeanty to be picked “a first round pick” (picks 1–32)
What happenedWent 6100Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Ashton Jeanty
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- a first round pick (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
“let's get started with the top ten combined prospects going into the combine. It's my list... It's number ten Michigan defensive back Will Johnson... Number nine is tight end Colston Loveland... my number eight prospect is Arizona wide receiver Tatoroa McMillan... cam Ward is my seventh overall prospect... that is Jalen Walker... Mason Graham is the number five prospect... number four... Ashton gent... Number three... Mister Tyler Warren... Number two, I've got... Abdul Carter... I've got Travis Hunter as my number one prospect”
VerdictClose66.67Close · naive 5066.67this call−50a naive guess=16.67better than naive×2difficulty=+33.33skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- 33.33
- placed:
- 6
- season:
- 2025
- players:
- 10
- accuracy:
- 66.67
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- CB 2: 100, LB 2: 0, TE 2: 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 0
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Cam Ward to be 1st on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 1called No. 1 · by passing yards100Hit · naive 91.67100this call−91.67a naive guess=8.33better than naive×2difficulty=+16.67skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- TEN
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Cam Ward
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Mason Graham to be picked “a top five pick” (picks 1–5)
What happenedWent 5100Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Mason Graham
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- a top five pick (picks 1–5)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
Tyler Warren to be picked “as high as top five. He will not escape the top ten” (picks 1–5)
What happenedWent 1467.71Close · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Tyler Warren
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 67.71
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 14
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 67.71
- predicted pick:
- as high as top five. He will not escape the top ten (picks 1–5)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
Will Johnson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
What happenedWent 4752.21Close · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Will Johnson
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 52.21
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 47
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 52.21
- predicted pick:
- first round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
Cam Ward to be picked “a top five, top ten pick” (picks 1–5)
What happenedWent 1100Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Cam Ward
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- a top five, top ten pick (picks 1–5)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 8 settled calls, each counted once
82.2naive 50.6
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Ian Rapoport · Position Order Calls · Tetairoa McMillan · Close 71
Rapoport said Travis Hunter is likely the pick at No. 2 for the Browns, that Shedeur Sanders is in play at No. 3, and predicted Tetairoa McMillan would be the first receiver drafted. They also expected Brock Purdy's next deal to land around $50 million per year with Dak Prescott remaining the only quarterback above $60 million.Kyle Crabbs · Mock Draft Picks · Cam Ward · Hit 100
In their final 2025 NFL mock draft, Crabbs projects all 32 first-round picks, starting with Cam Ward to the Titans at No. 1 and Travis Hunter to the Browns at No. 2, and including projected trades involving the Bears/Jaguars and a Giants move back into the late first round for Jaxson Dart.Colin Cowherd · Mock Draft Picks · Tetairoa McMillan · Hit 100
Cowherd delivered their own top-15 draft board — what they would do as GM of each team — pairing prospects with picks 1 through 15, and separately argued Shedeur Sanders is a far better prospect than Daniel Jones and that Aaron Rodgers should retire.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Chris Simms · Mock Draft Picks · Malachi Corley · Miss 11
Simms named the Bears the NFL's best overall offense and best rushing offense, the Bengals the best passing offense, Seattle the best total defense, Minnesota the best pass defense and Tampa Bay the best run defense; they also called Tristan Wirfs the league's best offensive lineman, projected Miami's Malachi Toney as a top-15 pick, and predicted a 30-14 Jaguars win in Baltimore.Philip Hughes · Mock Draft Picks · Kyle Kennard · Miss 34
Evaluating edge rusher Kyle Kennard ahead of the draft, the account projected them as a Day 2 selection.Blaine Grisak · Mock Draft Picks · Brian Thomas Jr. · Hit 84
Grisak argues the Rams should not trade a second-round pick for Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr., calling it too great a risk and too high a cost. In an embedded tweet of their own from the 2024 pre-draft period, they suggested the Rams could select Thomas at pick No. 19.Charlie Campbell · Mock Draft Picks · Xavier Williams · Miss 0
Campbell's draft stock report projects Indiana WR Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in 2027, Mississippi State CB Kelley Jones as a first-rounder, Tennessee DT Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick, and Texas OT Trevor Goosby as a top-10 pick, while suggesting Arch Manning could still be a first-rounder if they declare.