Mike Florio· Sep 9, 2026
Florio gives score predictions for every Week 1 game of the 2026 NFL season, including an opening-night upset by the Patriots in Seattle and narrow home wins for the Giants and Chiefs.
“I'd rather be wrong by being bold than to take the chalk and regret missing the potential signs for an opening-night upset.”
published in writing · NBC Sports · read the original →
16 checkable claims — 16 score predictions — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 16 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 16 have settled, averaging 61.5 out of 100, against 52.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
The games in this take
- Patriots at Seahawks 34 calls
- 49ers at Rams 37 calls
- Buccaneers at Bengals 31 calls
- Falcons at Steelers 34 calls
- Bears at Panthers 28 calls
- Jets at Titans 25 calls
- Saints at Lions 22 calls
- Browns at Jaguars 38 calls
- Ravens at Colts 24 calls
- Bills at Texans 46 calls
- Dolphins at Raiders 48 calls
- Packers at Vikings 42 calls
- Cardinals at Chargers 23 calls
- Commanders at Eagles 32 calls
- Cowboys at Giants 42 calls
- Broncos at Chiefs 45 calls
16 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Score PredictionsKansas City ChiefsSep 9, 2026
Kansas City Chiefs 20 — Broncos 17
“Chiefs 20, Broncos 17.”
Close · 57Scored 57.14a naive guess scored 51.93+10.42 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 10-31
- skill:
- 10.42
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 57.14
- baseline:
- 51.93
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 21
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- 0.81
- predicted margin:
- 3
- Score PredictionsMinnesota VikingsSep 9, 2026
Minnesota Vikings 30 — Packers 20
“Vikings 30, Packers 20.”
Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 58.25+50.16 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 22-39
- skill:
- 50.16
- they picked:
- MIN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 83.33
- baseline:
- 58.25
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 17
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- -0.53
- predicted margin:
- 10
- Score PredictionsDetroit LionsSep 9, 2026
Detroit Lions 34 — Saints 24
“Lions 34, Saints 24.”
Close · 79Scored 78.57a naive guess scored 96.35-35.56 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 30-31
- skill:
- -35.56
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 78.57
- baseline:
- 96.35
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- -0.53
- predicted margin:
- 10
- Score PredictionsHouston TexansSep 9, 2026
Houston Texans 20 — Bills 16
“Texans 20, Bills 16.”
Close · 48Scored 47.62a naive guess scored 36.83+21.59 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 36-31
- skill:
- 21.59
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 47.62
- baseline:
- 36.83
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- -0.53
- predicted margin:
- 4
- Score PredictionsCincinnati BengalsSep 9, 2026
Cincinnati Bengals 27 — Buccaneers 24
“Bengals 27, Buccaneers 24.”
Hit · 93Scored 92.86a naive guess scored 84.44+16.83 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 27-33
- skill:
- 16.83
- they picked:
- CIN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 92.86
- baseline:
- 84.44
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 6
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- -0.53
- predicted margin:
- 3
- Score PredictionsChicago BearsSep 9, 2026
Chicago Bears 24 — Panthers 17
“Bears 24, Panthers 17.”
Close · 64Scored 64.29a naive guess scored 0+128.57 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 59-37
- skill:
- 128.57
- they picked:
- CHI
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 64.29
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 22
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- -0.53
- predicted margin:
- 7
- Score PredictionsNew York GiantsSep 9, 2026
New York Giants 23 — Cowboys 21
“Giants 23, Cowboys 21.”
Hit · 86Scored 85.71a naive guess scored 79.68+12.06 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 20-28
- skill:
- 12.06
- they picked:
- NYG
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 85.71
- baseline:
- 79.68
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 8
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- -0.53
- predicted margin:
- 2
- Score PredictionsBaltimore RavensSep 9, 2026
Baltimore Ravens 24 — Colts 20
“Ravens 24, Colts 20.”
Close · 67Scored 66.67a naive guess scored 5.87+121.59 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 41-23
- skill:
- 121.59
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 66.67
- baseline:
- 5.87
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- -0.53
- predicted margin:
- 4
- Score PredictionsPhiladelphia EaglesSep 9, 2026
Philadelphia Eagles 27 — Commanders 14
“Eagles 27, Commanders 14.”
Close · 74Scored 73.81a naive guess scored 93.97-40.32 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 22-24
- skill:
- -40.32
- they picked:
- PHI
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 73.81
- baseline:
- 93.97
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- -0.53
- predicted margin:
- 13
- Score PredictionsPittsburgh SteelersSep 9, 2026
Pittsburgh Steelers 21 — Falcons 10
“Steelers 21, Falcons 10.”
Hit · 90Scored 90.48a naive guess scored 82.06+16.83 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 13-20
- skill:
- 16.83
- they picked:
- PIT
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 90.48
- baseline:
- 82.06
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 7
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- -0.53
- predicted margin:
- 11
- Score PredictionsLos Angeles ChargersSep 9, 2026
Los Angeles Chargers 27 — Cardinals 10
“Chargers 27, Cardinals 10.”
Miss · 38Scored 38.1a naive guess scored 20.16+35.87 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 26-14
- skill:
- 35.87
- they picked:
- LAC
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 38.1
- baseline:
- 20.16
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 12
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- -0.53
- predicted margin:
- 17
- Score PredictionsMiami DolphinsSep 9, 2026
Miami Dolphins 13 — Raiders 10
“Dolphins 13, Raiders 10.”
Miss · 24Scored 23.81a naive guess scored 65.4-83.17 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 13-27
- skill:
- -83.17
- they picked:
- MIA
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 23.81
- baseline:
- 65.4
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 14
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- -0.53
- predicted margin:
- 3
- Score PredictionsTennessee TitansSep 9, 2026
Tennessee Titans 20 — Jets 17
“Titans 20, Jets 17.”
Miss · 26Scored 26.19a naive guess scored 17.78+16.83 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 23-10
- skill:
- 16.83
- they picked:
- TEN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 26.19
- baseline:
- 17.78
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 13
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- -0.53
- predicted margin:
- 3
- Score PredictionsJacksonville JaguarsSep 9, 2026
Jacksonville Jaguars 28 — Browns 14
“Jaguars 28, Browns 14.”
Close · 76Scored 76.19a naive guess scored 50+52.38 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 10-34
- skill:
- 52.38
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 76.19
- baseline:
- 50
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 24
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- -0.53
- predicted margin:
- 14
- Score PredictionsLos Angeles RamsSep 9, 2026
Los Angeles Rams 24 — 49ers 13
“Rams 24, 49ers 13.”
Miss · 29Scored 28.57a naive guess scored 0+57.14 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 27-7
- skill:
- 57.14
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 28.57
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 20
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- -8.5
- predicted margin:
- 11
- Score PredictionsNew England PatriotsSep 9, 2026
New England Patriots 24 — Seahawks 21
“Patriots 24, Seahawks 21.”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 100-100 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 10-13
- skill:
- -100
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- 3
- predicted margin:
- 3
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Minnesota VikingsHit · 100Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
More score predictions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsClose · 48Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Green Bay PackersMiss · 10Simms picked the Packers to beat the Falcons in the Thursday night game by a low score, expecting a defensive struggle.
- Nate TiceScore Predictions · Dallas CowboysHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
- Marcus RayScore Predictions · Tampa Bay BuccaneersMiss · 19Marcus predicted a 30-13 Buccaneers win over Cleveland with three touchdowns and three field goals, and picked the Raiders to beat a Jim Harbaugh team to start 2-0.
- Ryan LaVoyScore Predictions · Tampa Bay BuccaneersMiss · 17LaVoy predicted a 28-10 Buccaneers win over the Browns, said even the Falcons would beat Cleveland, and named Detroit, Baltimore and the Rams as teams he expects in the playoffs.
- Jaron SporScore Predictions · Tampa Bay BuccaneersMiss · 19The host predicted a comfortable Buccaneers win over Cleveland, 27-10, picked Jacksonville as an upset winner at Denver, said the Giants could win seven or eight games as a sneaky team, and expected Deshaun Watson and the Browns to part ways soon.