Mike Florio#15 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 9, 2026

Florio gives score predictions for every Week 1 game of the 2026 NFL season, including an opening-night upset by the Patriots in Seattle and narrow home wins for the Giants and Chiefs.

Published in writing · NBC SportsRead the original

4 of 16calls landed4 hits · 8 close calls · 4 misses · all settled

61.5Average accuracyout of 100, across 16 calls

52.7A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

16Games calledeveryone’s picks below

#15Mike Florio’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Mike Florio said

I'd rather be wrong by being bold than to take the chalk and regret missing the potential signs for an opening-night upset.

Mike Florio, the lead quote

Where it was published: NBC Sports
The piece: PFT's Week 1 2026 NFL picks
The original: Read the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidSep 9
PlayedSep 9–14
GradedSep 11–16

Box score, by kind

HitCloseMissWaiting

Group	Hits	Close	Misses	Waiting	Calls
Score Predictions	4	8	4	0
All	4	8	4	0

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

16 checkable claims — 16 score predictions — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 16 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 16 have settled, averaging 61.5 out of 100, against 52.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Score Predictions4 hits · 8 close calls · 4 missesShow ▸

Kansas City Chiefs 20 — Broncos 17
“Chiefs 20, Broncos 17.”
Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs 31–10called Chiefs by 3 · won by 21
57.14Close
57.14 − 51.93 naive = 5.21 × 2 difficulty = +10.42 skill
Closing line (Sep 14): Chiefs by 2.5, total 42.5 · this 20–17 calls a bigger Chiefs win (by 3) and fewer points (37).
How this was scored
score:
10-31
skill:
10.42
they picked:
KC
season:
2026
accuracy:
57.14
baseline:
51.93
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
21
weeks left when called:
18
naive home margin:
0.81
predicted margin:
3
Think this is wrong?
Minnesota Vikings 30 — Packers 20
“Vikings 30, Packers 20.”
Minnesota Vikings
Vikings 39–22called Vikings by 10 · won by 17
83.33Hit
83.33 − 58.25 naive = 25.08 × 2 difficulty = +50.16 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Vikings by 1.5, total 46.5 · this 30–20 calls a bigger Vikings win (by 10) and more points (50).
How this was scored
score:
22-39
skill:
50.16
they picked:
MIN
season:
2026
accuracy:
83.33
baseline:
58.25
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
17
weeks left when called:
18
naive home margin:
−0.53
predicted margin:
10
Think this is wrong?
Detroit Lions 34 — Saints 24
“Lions 34, Saints 24.”
Detroit Lions
Lions 31–30called Lions by 10 · won by 1
78.57Close
78.57 − 96.35 naive = −17.78 × 2 difficulty = −35.56 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Lions by 7, total 49.5 · this 34–24 calls a bigger Lions win (by 10) and more points (58).
How this was scored
score:
30-31
skill:
−35.56
they picked:
DET
season:
2026
accuracy:
78.57
baseline:
96.35
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
1
weeks left when called:
18
naive home margin:
−0.53
predicted margin:
10
Think this is wrong?
Houston Texans 20 — Bills 16
“Texans 20, Bills 16.”
Houston Texans
Bills 36–31called Texans by 4 · lost by 5
47.62Close
47.62 − 36.83 naive = 10.79 × 2 difficulty = +21.59 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Bills by 1.5, total 44.5 · this 20–16 calls a Texans win (by 4; the line gave the Texans 50%) and fewer points (36).
How this was scored
score:
36-31
skill:
21.59
they picked:
HOU
season:
2026
accuracy:
47.62
baseline:
36.83
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
5
weeks left when called:
18
naive home margin:
−0.53
predicted margin:
4
Think this is wrong?
Cincinnati Bengals 27 — Buccaneers 24
“Bengals 27, Buccaneers 24.”
Cincinnati Bengals
Bengals 33–27called Bengals by 3 · won by 6
92.86Hit
92.86 − 84.44 naive = 8.42 × 2 difficulty = +16.83 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Bengals by 3.5, total 50.5 · this 27–24 calls a closer game (Bengals by 3) and more points (51).
How this was scored
score:
27-33
skill:
16.83
they picked:
CIN
season:
2026
accuracy:
92.86
baseline:
84.44
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
6
weeks left when called:
18
naive home margin:
−0.53
predicted margin:
3
Think this is wrong?
Chicago Bears 24 — Panthers 17
“Bears 24, Panthers 17.”
Chicago Bears
Bears 59–37called Bears by 7 · won by 22
64.29Close
64.29 − 0 naive = 64.29 × 2 difficulty = +128.57 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Bears by 3, total 47.5 · this 24–17 calls a bigger Bears win (by 7) and fewer points (41).
How this was scored
score:
59-37
skill:
128.57
they picked:
CHI
season:
2026
accuracy:
64.29
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
22
weeks left when called:
18
naive home margin:
−0.53
predicted margin:
7
Think this is wrong?
New York Giants 23 — Cowboys 21
“Giants 23, Cowboys 21.”
New York Giants
Giants 28–20called Giants by 2 · won by 8
85.71Hit
85.71 − 79.68 naive = 6.03 × 2 difficulty = +12.06 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Cowboys by 3, total 47.5 · this 23–21 calls a Giants win (by 2; the line gave the Giants 40%) and fewer points (44).
How this was scored
score:
20-28
skill:
12.06
they picked:
NYG
season:
2026
accuracy:
85.71
baseline:
79.68
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
8
weeks left when called:
18
naive home margin:
−0.53
predicted margin:
2
Think this is wrong?
Baltimore Ravens 24 — Colts 20
“Ravens 24, Colts 20.”
Baltimore Ravens
Ravens 41–23called Ravens by 4 · won by 18
66.67Close
66.67 − 5.87 naive = 60.8 × 2 difficulty = +121.59 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Ravens by 3, total 48.5 · this 24–20 calls a bigger Ravens win (by 4) and fewer points (44).
How this was scored
score:
41-23
skill:
121.59
they picked:
BAL
season:
2026
accuracy:
66.67
baseline:
5.87
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
18
weeks left when called:
18
naive home margin:
−0.53
predicted margin:
4
Think this is wrong?
Philadelphia Eagles 27 — Commanders 14
“Eagles 27, Commanders 14.”
Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles 24–22called Eagles by 13 · won by 2
73.81Close
73.81 − 93.97 naive = −20.16 × 2 difficulty = −40.32 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Eagles by 6, total 43.5 · this 27–14 calls a bigger Eagles win (by 13) and fewer points (41).
How this was scored
score:
22-24
skill:
−40.32
they picked:
PHI
season:
2026
accuracy:
73.81
baseline:
93.97
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
2
weeks left when called:
18
naive home margin:
−0.53
predicted margin:
13
Think this is wrong?
Pittsburgh Steelers 21 — Falcons 10
“Steelers 21, Falcons 10.”
Pittsburgh Steelers
Steelers 20–13called Steelers by 11 · won by 7
90.48Hit
90.48 − 82.06 naive = 8.42 × 2 difficulty = +16.83 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Steelers by 6.5, total 40.5 · this 21–10 calls a bigger Steelers win (by 11) and fewer points (31).
How this was scored
score:
13-20
skill:
16.83
they picked:
PIT
season:
2026
accuracy:
90.48
baseline:
82.06
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
7
weeks left when called:
18
naive home margin:
−0.53
predicted margin:
11
Think this is wrong?
Los Angeles Chargers 27 — Cardinals 10
“Chargers 27, Cardinals 10.”
Los Angeles Chargers
Cardinals 26–14called Chargers by 17 · lost by 12
38.1Miss
38.1 − 20.16 naive = 17.94 × 2 difficulty = +35.87 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Chargers by 8.5, total 47.5 · this 27–10 calls a bigger Chargers win (by 17) and fewer points (37).
How this was scored
score:
26-14
skill:
35.87
they picked:
LAC
season:
2026
accuracy:
38.1
baseline:
20.16
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
12
weeks left when called:
18
naive home margin:
−0.53
predicted margin:
17
Think this is wrong?
Miami Dolphins 13 — Raiders 10
“Dolphins 13, Raiders 10.”
Miami Dolphins
Raiders 27–13called Dolphins by 3 · lost by 14
23.81Miss
23.81 − 65.4 naive = −41.59 × 2 difficulty = −83.17 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Raiders by 3, total 40.5 · this 13–10 calls a Dolphins win (by 3; the line gave the Dolphins 40%) and fewer points (23).
How this was scored
score:
13-27
skill:
−83.17
they picked:
MIA
season:
2026
accuracy:
23.81
baseline:
65.4
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
14
weeks left when called:
18
naive home margin:
−0.53
predicted margin:
3
Think this is wrong?
Tennessee Titans 20 — Jets 17
“Titans 20, Jets 17.”
Tennessee Titans
Jets 23–10called Titans by 3 · lost by 13
26.19Miss
26.19 − 17.78 naive = 8.41 × 2 difficulty = +16.83 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Titans by 1.5, total 39.5 · this 20–17 calls a bigger Titans win (by 3) and fewer points (37).
How this was scored
score:
23-10
skill:
16.83
they picked:
TEN
season:
2026
accuracy:
26.19
baseline:
17.78
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
13
weeks left when called:
18
naive home margin:
−0.53
predicted margin:
3
Think this is wrong?
Jacksonville Jaguars 28 — Browns 14
“Jaguars 28, Browns 14.”
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jaguars 34–10called Jaguars by 14 · won by 24
76.19Close
76.19 − 50 naive = 26.19 × 2 difficulty = +52.38 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Jaguars by 8.5, total 40.5 · this 28–14 calls a bigger Jaguars win (by 14) and more points (42).
How this was scored
score:
10-34
skill:
52.38
they picked:
JAX
season:
2026
accuracy:
76.19
baseline:
50
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
24
weeks left when called:
18
naive home margin:
−0.53
predicted margin:
14
Think this is wrong?
Los Angeles Rams 24 — 49ers 13
“Rams 24, 49ers 13.”
Los Angeles Rams
49ers 27–7called Rams by 11 · lost by 20
28.57Miss
28.57 − 0 naive = 28.57 × 2 difficulty = +57.14 skill
Closing line (Sep 10): Rams by 3.5, total 47.5 · this 24–13 calls a bigger Rams win (by 11) and fewer points (37).
How this was scored
score:
27-7
skill:
57.14
they picked:
LAR
season:
2026
accuracy:
28.57
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
20
weeks left when called:
18
naive home margin:
−8.5
predicted margin:
11
Think this is wrong?
New England Patriots 24 — Seahawks 21
“Patriots 24, Seahawks 21.”
New England Patriots
Seahawks 13–10called Patriots by 3 · lost by 3
50Close
50 − 100 naive = −50 × 2 difficulty = −100 skill
Closing line (Sep 9): Seahawks by 3, total 44.5 · this 24–21 calls a Patriots win (by 3; the line gave the Patriots 40%) and more points (45).
How this was scored
score:
10-13
skill:
−100
they picked:
NE
season:
2026
accuracy:
50
baseline:
100
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
3
weeks left when called:
18
naive home margin:
3
predicted margin:
3
Think this is wrong?