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Nate Tice· Oct 22, 2026

Tice picked the Packers to beat the Lions in Detroit, the Chiefs to win at Seattle, the Bengals to win at Baltimore with Lamar Jackson's status uncertain, the Texans over the Giants, and the 49ers over the Falcons. His Hail Mary was that the Vikings beat the Colts and hold Indianapolis to single-digit points.

“I'm gonna go with the packers here.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Football 301 with Nate Tice (podcast) · read the original →

5 checkable claims — 5 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 5 have settled, averaging 40 out of 100, against 60 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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Who this take is about

The games in this take

5 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing. Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  • Game Outcome PicksKansas City ChiefsOct 22, 2026

    Kansas City Chiefs to beat Seahawks

    “I'm going with the Chiefs, but I still think the Seahawks are a very good team. But, man, the the Chiefs just have a lot of natural answers, advantages.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-167 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    SEA
    score:
    3-20
    skill:
    −167
    they picked:
    KC
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    SEA
    difficulty:
    1.67
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    12

    Closing line (Oct 25): Seahawks by 3 · underdog pick, Chiefs 41%.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksCincinnati BengalsOct 22, 2026

    Cincinnati Bengals to beat Ravens

    “If Lamar's playing, I would go Ravens... but I'm gonna go with the Bengals just because I know what Tyre Huntley is.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+167 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    CIN
    score:
    35-13
    skill:
    167
    they picked:
    CIN
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    BAL
    difficulty:
    1.67
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    12

    Closing line (Oct 25): Bengals by 3 · favorite pick, Bengals 59%.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksMinnesota VikingsOct 22, 2026

    Minnesota Vikings to beat Colts

    “I said the Vikings will hold the Colts to single digit points... So, yeah, if if the Colts win this game, then I'm just like, I'll eat the crow.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    MIN
    score:
    10-16
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    MIN
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    MIN
    difficulty:
    1.67
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    12

    Closing line (Oct 25): Vikings by 6.5 · favorite pick, Vikings about 3 in 4 (73%).

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  • Game Outcome PicksHouston TexansOct 22, 2026

    Houston Texans to beat Giants

    “I am going with the Texans to... Or could potentially get to three and four here”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    NYG
    score:
    27-21
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    HOU
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    HOU
    difficulty:
    1.67
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    12

    Closing line (Oct 25): Texans by 10 · favorite pick, Texans about 4 in 5 (80%).

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  • Game Outcome PicksSan Francisco 49ersOct 22, 2026

    San Francisco 49ers to beat Falcons

    “I'm going niners too, and even with our... I'd mentioned all those natural answers”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-167 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    ATL
    score:
    20-29
    skill:
    −167
    they picked:
    SF
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    ATL
    difficulty:
    1.67
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    12

    Closing line (Oct 25): 49ers by 2.5 · favorite pick, 49ers 58%.

    Think this is wrong?

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