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John MaakaronOct 4, 2026

Maakaron sees Jahmyr Gibbs getting heavy usage against the league's worst rush defense and the Lions winning a somewhat close game.

Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original

45Close · out of 100
Panthers 32–26What happenedcalled Lions by 4 · lost by 6
88.1A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
45.24This callout of 100
−78.43Skillafter difficulty

What John Maakaron said

It is hard not to imagine Jahmyr Gibbs getting a hefty workload this week.
Our reading: Detroit Lions 27 — Panthers 23
Where it was published
Sports Illustrated
The piece
Expert Predictions For Detroit Lions Matchup With Carolina Panthers
The original
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  1. SaidOct 4
  2. PlayedOct 4
  3. GradedOct 5

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 45.2 out of 100, against 88.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Score PredictionsDetroit Lions

    Detroit Lions 27 — Panthers 23

    What happenedPanthers 32–26called Lions by 4 · lost by 6
    45.24Close · naive 88.1
    45.24this call88.1a naive guess−42.86worse than naive1.83difficulty−78.43skill

    Closing line (Oct 4): Lions by 4.5, total 52.5 · this 27–23 calls a closer game (Lions by 4) and fewer points (50).

    How this was scored
    score:
    26-32
    skill:
    −78.43
    they picked:
    DET
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    45.24
    baseline:
    88.1
    difficulty:
    1.83
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    6
    weeks left when called:
    15
    naive home margin:
    1
    predicted margin:
    4
    Think this is wrong?

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