Jared Dubin#60 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 10, 2026
Dubin picks the Rams, Texans, Ravens, Bengals, Packers, Cowboys and Broncos in Week 1 with exact scores, and says the Rams are their pick to win the Super Bowl this season.
Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original
What Jared Dubin said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromThe Rams are, unsurprisingly, my pick to win the Super Bowl this season.
- Where it was published
- CBS Sports
- The piece
- NFL Week 1 picks: Our experts face off on 49ers vs. Rams in Australia, Bills at Texans and more
- The original
- Read the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidSep 10
- PlayedSep 10–14
- GradedSep 12–16
- 1Denver Broncos 21 — Chiefs 20“Prediction: Broncos 21, Chiefs 20”
- 2Dallas Cowboys 31 — Giants 20“Prediction: Cowboys 31, Giants 20”
- 3Green Bay Packers 30 — Vikings 27“Prediction: Packers 30, Vikings 27”
- 4Houston Texans 20 — Bills 17“Prediction: Texans 20, Bills 17”
- 5Baltimore Ravens 30 — Colts 14“Prediction: Ravens 30, Colts 14”
- 6Cincinnati Bengals 27 — Buccaneers 21“Prediction: Bengals 27, Buccaneers 21”
- 7Los Angeles Rams 31 — 49ers 21“Prediction: Rams 31, 49ers 21”
- 8Los Angeles Rams to win the Super Bowl“The Rams are, unsurprisingly, my pick to win the Super Bowl this season.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos 21 — Chiefs 201 | Score Predictions | Chiefs 31–10 | 2.38 | 51.93 | −99.11 | |
| Dallas Cowboys 31 — Giants 202 | Score Predictions | Giants 28–20 | 42.86 | 79.68 | −73.65 | |
| Green Bay Packers 30 — Vikings 273 | Score Predictions | Vikings 39–22 | 16.67 | 58.25 | −83.17 | |
| Houston Texans 20 — Bills 174 | Score Predictions | Bills 36–31 | 45.24 | 36.83 | +16.83 | |
| Baltimore Ravens 30 — Colts 145 | Score Predictions | Ravens 41–23 | 95.24 | 5.87 | +178.73 | |
| Cincinnati Bengals 27 — Buccaneers 216 | Score Predictions | Bengals 33–27 | 100 | 84.44 | +31.11 | |
| Los Angeles Rams 31 — 49ers 217 | Score Predictions | 49ers 27–7 | 26.19 | 0 | +52.38 | |
| Los Angeles Rams to win the Super Bowl8 | Super Bowl Picks | — | — | — | — | |
| 8 calls · 2 hits · 2 close calls · 3 misses · 1 waiting | 46.9 | 45.3 | ||||
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive8 checkable claims — 7 score predictions and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
7 of 8 have settled so far, averaging 46.9 out of 100, against 45.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Score PredictionsDenver Broncos
Denver Broncos 21 — Chiefs 20
What happenedChiefs 31–10called Broncos by 1 · lost by 212.38Miss · naive 51.932.38this call−51.93a naive guess=−49.55worse than naive×2difficulty=−99.11skillClosing line (Sep 14): Chiefs by 2.5, total 42.5 · this 21–20 calls a Broncos win (by 1; the line gave the Broncos 46%) and fewer points (41).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- score:
- 10-31
- skill:
- −99.11
- they picked:
- DEN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 2.38
- baseline:
- 51.93
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 21
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- 0.81
- predicted margin:
- 1
2Score PredictionsDallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys 31 — Giants 20
What happenedGiants 28–20called Cowboys by 11 · lost by 842.86Close · naive 79.6842.86this call−79.68a naive guess=−36.82worse than naive×2difficulty=−73.65skillClosing line (Sep 13): Cowboys by 3, total 47.5 · this 31–20 calls a bigger Cowboys win (by 11) and more points (51).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- score:
- 20-28
- skill:
- −73.65
- they picked:
- DAL
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 42.86
- baseline:
- 79.68
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 8
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- −0.53
- predicted margin:
- 11
3Score PredictionsGreen Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers 30 — Vikings 27
What happenedVikings 39–22called Packers by 3 · lost by 1716.67Miss · naive 58.2516.67this call−58.25a naive guess=−41.58worse than naive×2difficulty=−83.17skillClosing line (Sep 13): Vikings by 1.5, total 46.5 · this 30–27 calls a Packers win (by 3; the line gave the Packers 47%) and more points (57).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- score:
- 22-39
- skill:
- −83.17
- they picked:
- GB
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 16.67
- baseline:
- 58.25
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 17
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- −0.53
- predicted margin:
- 3
4Score PredictionsHouston Texans
Houston Texans 20 — Bills 17
What happenedBills 36–31called Texans by 3 · lost by 545.24Close · naive 36.8345.24this call−36.83a naive guess=8.41better than naive×2difficulty=+16.83skillClosing line (Sep 13): Bills by 1.5, total 44.5 · this 20–17 calls a Texans win (by 3; the line gave the Texans 50%) and fewer points (37).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- score:
- 36-31
- skill:
- 16.83
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 45.24
- baseline:
- 36.83
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- −0.53
- predicted margin:
- 3
5Score PredictionsBaltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens 30 — Colts 14
What happenedRavens 41–23called Ravens by 16 · won by 1895.24Hit · naive 5.8795.24this call−5.87a naive guess=89.37better than naive×2difficulty=+178.73skillClosing line (Sep 13): Ravens by 3, total 48.5 · this 30–14 calls a bigger Ravens win (by 16) and fewer points (44).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- score:
- 41-23
- skill:
- 178.73
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 95.24
- baseline:
- 5.87
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- −0.53
- predicted margin:
- 16
6Score PredictionsCincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals 27 — Buccaneers 21
What happenedBengals 33–27called Bengals by 6 · won by 6100Hit · naive 84.44100this call−84.44a naive guess=15.56better than naive×2difficulty=+31.11skillClosing line (Sep 13): Bengals by 3.5, total 50.5 · this 27–21 calls a bigger Bengals win (by 6) and fewer points (48).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- score:
- 27-33
- skill:
- 31.11
- they picked:
- CIN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 84.44
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 6
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- −0.53
- predicted margin:
- 6
7Score PredictionsLos Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams 31 — 49ers 21
What happened49ers 27–7called Rams by 10 · lost by 2026.19Miss · naive 026.19this call−0a naive guess=26.19better than naive×2difficulty=+52.38skillClosing line (Sep 10): Rams by 3.5, total 47.5 · this 31–21 calls a bigger Rams win (by 10) and more points (52).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- score:
- 27-7
- skill:
- 52.38
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 26.19
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 20
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- −8.5
- predicted margin:
- 10
8Super Bowl PicksLos Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams to win the Super Bowl
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 7 settled calls, each counted once
46.9naive 45.3
The games in this take
every pundit’s pick on each- 49ers at Rams49ers 27Rams 735 calls →
- Ravens at ColtsRavens 41Colts 2320 calls →
- Bills at TexansBills 36Texans 3134 calls →
- Buccaneers at BengalsBengals 33Buccaneers 2724 calls →
- Packers at VikingsVikings 39Packers 2235 calls →
- Cowboys at GiantsGiants 28Cowboys 2032 calls →
- Broncos at ChiefsChiefs 31Broncos 1042 calls →
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman expects Sean Fresch Jr. to clear waivers and return to the Broncos' practice squad, sees Riley Moss back from concussion for the Week 11 game at Las Vegas, and projects newly acquired Daiyan Henley to begin as the third inside linebacker behind Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad before likely moving into a starting role.Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman writes that Riley Moss may sit out the preseason finale against Minnesota but should be available for the Week 1 opener at Kansas City; they also suggest undrafted corners Sean Fresch Jr. and Brent Austin are being evaluated for practice squad spots.Chad Jensen · Roster Spot Calls · Jordan Turner · Miss 0
Jensen predicts Daiyan Henley's arrival will cut into Justin Strnad's snaps while Alex Singleton keeps playing virtually every down, and that Denver will return to a three-linebacker rotation after the Week 10 bye. They also expect one of Jordan Turner or Karene Reid — most likely Turner — to be waived to clear a roster spot.Bobby Skinner · Trade and Signing Calls · Stefon Diggs · Miss 0
Skinner predicted Daniel Jones signs with and wins the starting job in Indianapolis, Milton Williams to New England, Lavonte David back to Tampa, Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams to the Giants, DJ Reid to Arizona, Hassan Reddick to Washington and Justin Fields staying in Pittsburgh, plus alternates they had listed.Colin Cowherd · Trade and Signing Calls · Matthew Stafford · Hit 100
Cowherd predicts Matt Stafford stays with the Rams rather than moving on, and says Travis Hunter may underachieve because they're being asked to play both ways — Cowherd doubts they're a No. 1 receiver and would slot them as a No. 2 receiver while being a No. 1 corner.Rich Eisen · Trade and Signing Calls · Micah Parsons · Miss 0
Eisen expects Myles Garrett to be traded before the draft and says the Browns will then take Abdul Carter with their early first-round pick; they also predict Buffalo will end up paying James Cook and that Micah Parsons will remain a Cowboy and get their money from Dallas, likely late in the process.
More score predictions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 95
Dajani picks the Commanders to edge the Giants 21-20 on Thursday and the Chiefs to beat the Falcons 26-20 in Week 10.Tyler Sullivan · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Sullivan takes the Commanders 24-21 over the Giants on Thursday night and calls for a Steelers upset of the Bengals, 27-24, in Week 10.Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Miss 36
Prisco picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 23-14 on Thursday night and the Lions to beat the Patriots 30-24 in Munich.John Breech · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 90
Breech picks the Commanders to upset the Giants on Thursday night, 24-17, and takes the Texans to beat the Browns 24-16 in Week 10 behind a pass rush that should batter Deshaun Watson.Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Miss 36
Prisco picked the Giants to beat the Commanders at home in the Thursday night Week 10 game, 23-14, citing New York's dominant front seven containing Jayden Daniels.Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 95
Dajani picked seven Week 10 games with final scores, including a Commanders upset of the Giants, Lions over the Patriots in Munich, Chiefs over the Falcons, Packers edging the Vikings, 49ers over the Cowboys, Bengals over the Steelers and Ravens over the Chargers. They also suggested Joe Burrow could win MVP this season.