Conor Orr#87 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 9, 2026
Orr's Week 1 straight-up picks, including several upsets (Patriots, Buccaneers, Browns, Dolphins, Commanders, Broncos).
Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original
What Conor Orr said
He is also the only person taking the Patriots on the road this week.
- Where it was published
- Sports Illustrated
- The piece
- NFL Week 1 Picks From the MMQB Staff: Texans Host Bills in Early AFC Clash
- The original
- Read the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidSep 9
- PlayedSep 9–14
- GradedSep 11–16
Box score, by kind
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Outcome Picks | 5 | 0 | 11 | 0 | |
| All | 5 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
16 checkable claims — 16 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 16 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 16 have settled, averaging 31.3 out of 100, against 62.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Game Outcome Picks5 hits · 11 missesShow ▸Hide ▾
- Chiefs 31–10Broncos at Chiefs0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Closing line (Sep 14): Chiefs by 2.5 · underdog pick, Broncos 46%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- KC
- score:
- 10-31
- skill:
- −200
- they picked:
- DEN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Bengals
“Buccaneers at Bengals — Conor Orr: Buccaneers”
Bengals 33–27Buccaneers at Bengals0Miss0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Bengals by 3.5 · underdog pick, Buccaneers about 1 in 3 (36%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- CIN
- score:
- 27-33
- skill:
- −200
- they picked:
- TB
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- CIN
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Jets 23–10Jets at Titans100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Titans by 1.5 · a toss-up, Jets 48%, Titans 52%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- NYJ
- score:
- 23-10
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- NYJ
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- TEN
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Ravens 41–23Ravens at Colts100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Ravens by 3 · favorite pick, Ravens 59%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- BAL
- score:
- 41-23
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- IND
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Bears 59–37Bears at Panthers100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Bears by 3 · favorite pick, Bears 60%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- CHI
- score:
- 59-37
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- CHI
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- CAR
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Jaguars 34–10Browns at Jaguars0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Jaguars by 8.5 · underdog pick, Browns about 1 in 5 (21%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- JAX
- score:
- 10-34
- skill:
- −200
- they picked:
- CLE
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- JAX
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Vikings 39–22Packers at Vikings0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Vikings by 1.5 · a toss-up, Packers 47%, Vikings 53%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- MIN
- score:
- 22-39
- skill:
- −200
- they picked:
- GB
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- MIN
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Washington Commanders to beat Eagles
“Commanders at Eagles — Conor Orr: Commanders”
Eagles 24–22Commanders at Eagles0Miss0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Eagles by 6 · underdog pick, Commanders about 1 in 3 (32%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- PHI
- score:
- 22-24
- skill:
- −200
- they picked:
- WAS
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Raiders 27–13Dolphins at Raiders0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Raiders by 3 · underdog pick, Dolphins 40%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- LV
- score:
- 13-27
- skill:
- −200
- they picked:
- MIA
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- LV
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Bills 36–31Bills at Texans0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Bills by 1.5 · a toss-up, Bills 50%, Texans 50%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 36-31
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Lions 31–30Saints at Lions100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Lions by 7 · favorite pick, Lions about 3 in 4 (73%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- DET
- score:
- 30-31
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- DET
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Los Angeles Chargers to beat Cardinals
“Cardinals at Chargers — Conor Orr: Chargers”
Cardinals 26–14Cardinals at Chargers0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Chargers by 8.5 · favorite pick, Chargers about 4 in 5 (79%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- ARI
- score:
- 26-14
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- LAC
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- LAC
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Giants 28–20Cowboys at Giants0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Cowboys by 3 · favorite pick, Cowboys 60%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- NYG
- score:
- 20-28
- skill:
- −200
- they picked:
- DAL
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- NYG
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Steelers 20–13Falcons at Steelers100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Steelers by 6.5 · favorite pick, Steelers 72%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- PIT
- score:
- 13-20
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- PIT
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- PIT
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- 49ers 27–749ers at Rams0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 10): Rams by 3.5 · favorite pick, Rams about 2 in 3 (66%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- SF
- score:
- 27-7
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- LAR
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
New England Patriots to beat Seahawks
“Patriots at Seahawks — Conor Orr: Patriots”
Seahawks 13–10Patriots at Seahawks0Miss0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Closing line (Sep 9): Seahawks by 3 · underdog pick, Patriots 40%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- SEA
- score:
- 10-13
- skill:
- −200
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- SEA
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
The games in this take
every pundit’s pick on each- Patriots at SeahawksSeahawks 13Patriots 1027 calls →
- 49ers at Rams49ers 27Rams 735 calls →
- Saints at LionsLions 31Saints 3020 calls →
- Jets at TitansJets 23Titans 1020 calls →
- Falcons at SteelersSteelers 20Falcons 1327 calls →
- Browns at JaguarsJaguars 34Browns 1037 calls →
- Ravens at ColtsRavens 41Colts 2320 calls →
- Bills at TexansBills 36Texans 3134 calls →
- Bears at PanthersBears 59Panthers 3723 calls →
- Buccaneers at BengalsBengals 33Buccaneers 2724 calls →
- Cardinals at ChargersCardinals 26Chargers 1420 calls →
- Dolphins at RaidersRaiders 27Dolphins 1339 calls →
- Packers at VikingsVikings 39Packers 2235 calls →
- Commanders at EaglesEagles 24Commanders 2227 calls →
- Cowboys at GiantsGiants 28Cowboys 2032 calls →
- Broncos at ChiefsChiefs 31Broncos 1042 calls →
Who this take is about
Denver Broncos, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New York Jets, Baltimore Ravens, Chicago Bears, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Washington Commanders, Miami Dolphins, Houston Texans, Detroit Lions, Los Angeles Chargers, Dallas Cowboys, Pittsburgh Steelers, Los Angeles Rams, New England Patriots
Others on the same people
Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman expects Sean Fresch Jr. to clear waivers and return to the Broncos' practice squad, sees Riley Moss back from concussion for the Week 11 game at Las Vegas, and projects newly acquired Daiyan Henley to begin as the third inside linebacker behind Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad before likely moving into a starting role.Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman writes that Riley Moss may sit out the preseason finale against Minnesota but should be available for the Week 1 opener at Kansas City; they also suggest undrafted corners Sean Fresch Jr. and Brent Austin are being evaluated for practice squad spots.Nate Gosney · Trade and Signing Calls · Daiyan Henley · Miss 0
After the Broncos rescinded the trade, Gosney expects Daiyan Henley to remain with the Chargers for the rest of the 2026 season, but believes the awkward fallout has effectively killed any chance of them signing a new contract with Los Angeles after the season.Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 95
Dajani picks the Commanders to edge the Giants 21-20 on Thursday and the Chiefs to beat the Falcons 26-20 in Week 10.Tyler Sullivan · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Sullivan takes the Commanders 24-21 over the Giants on Thursday night and calls for a Steelers upset of the Bengals, 27-24, in Week 10.John Breech · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 90
Breech picks the Commanders to upset the Giants on Thursday night, 24-17, and takes the Texans to beat the Browns 24-16 in Week 10 behind a pass rush that should batter Deshaun Watson.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Breer picked all 14 Week 10 games straight up, favoring the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens.Mitch Goldich · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Goldich picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Matt Verderame · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Verderame picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.John Pluym · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Pluym picked the Giants, Patriots, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Colts, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10.Mike Kadlick · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Kadlick picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Browns, Packers, Jaguars, Colts, Saints, Bills, Raiders, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10.