Tyler Sullivan#27 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 8, 2026

Sullivan picks the Bears to beat the Packers in their NFC North matchup, leaning on Chicago's league-leading rushing attack against a Green Bay run defense that has struggled. They also give score predictions for several other Week 5 games: Lions over Cardinals, Vikings over Saints, Texans over Titans and Bengals over Dolphins.

Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original

2 of 5calls landed2 hits · 2 close calls · 1 miss · all settled

58.6Average accuracyout of 100, across 5 calls

32.7A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

5Games calledeveryone’s picks below

#27Tyler Sullivan’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Tyler Sullivan said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

That's why Sullivan has the Bears winning and covering.

Tyler Sullivan, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was published: CBS Sports
The piece: Rays sweep Yankees; Dodgers head to NLCS; Does Cam Jurgens trade signal more changes for Eagles?
The original: Read the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidOct 8
PlayedOct 11
GradedOct 11–12

1Detroit Lions 33 — Cardinals 30“Lions 33, Cardinals 30”
2Minnesota Vikings 23 — Saints 20“Vikings 23, Saints 20”
3Chicago Bears to beat Packers“That's why Sullivan has the Bears winning and covering.”
4Houston Texans 27 — Titans 17“Texans 27, Titans 17”
5Cincinnati Bengals 27 — Dolphins 16“Bengals 27, Dolphins 16”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Detroit Lions 33 — Cardinals 30¹	Score Predictions	Lions 45–21	50	0	+89
Minnesota Vikings 23 — Saints 20²	Score Predictions	Vikings 23–13	83.33	28.28	+97.99
Chicago Bears to beat Packers³	Game Outcome Picks	Packers 31–7	0	100	−178
Houston Texans 27 — Titans 17⁴	Score Predictions	Texans 26–3	69.05	0	+122.9
Cincinnati Bengals 27 — Dolphins 16⁵	Score Predictions	Bengals 31–24	90.48	35.42	+97.99
5 calls · 2 hits · 2 close calls · 1 miss · all settled			58.6	32.7

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

5 checkable claims — 4 score predictions and 1 game outcome pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 5 have settled, averaging 58.6 out of 100, against 32.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Score Predictions Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions 33 — Cardinals 30
What happenedLions 45–21called Lions by 3 · won by 24
50Close · naive 0
50this call0a naive guess50better than naive1.78difficulty+89skill
Closing line (Oct 11): Lions by 5.5, total 55.5 · this 33–30 calls a closer game (Lions by 3) and more points (63).
How this was scored
score:
45-21
skill:
89
they picked:
DET
season:
2026
accuracy:
50
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
24
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.32
predicted margin:
3
Think this is wrong?
2Score Predictions Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings 23 — Saints 20
What happenedVikings 23–13called Vikings by 3 · won by 10
83.33Hit · naive 28.28
83.33this call28.28a naive guess55.05better than naive1.78difficulty+97.99skill
Closing line (Oct 11): Vikings by 2.5, total 41.5 · this 23–20 calls a bigger Vikings win (by 3) and more points (43).
How this was scored
score:
23-13
skill:
97.99
they picked:
MIN
season:
2026
accuracy:
83.33
baseline:
28.28
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
10
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.88
predicted margin:
3
Think this is wrong?
3Game Outcome Picks Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears to beat Packers
What happenedPackers 31–7Bears at Packers
0Miss · naive 100
0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.78difficulty−178skill
Closing line (Oct 11): Bears by 1.5 · a toss-up, Bears 53%, Packers 47%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.
How this was scored
won:
GB
score:
7-31
skill:
−178
they picked:
CHI
season:
2026
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
GB
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
14
Think this is wrong?
4Score Predictions Houston Texans
Houston Texans 27 — Titans 17
What happenedTexans 26–3called Texans by 10 · won by 23
69.05Close · naive 0
69.05this call0a naive guess69.05better than naive1.78difficulty+122.9skill
Closing line (Oct 11): Texans by 6.5, total 37.5 · this 27–17 calls a bigger Texans win (by 10) and more points (44).
How this was scored
score:
26-3
skill:
122.9
they picked:
HOU
season:
2026
accuracy:
69.05
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
23
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.88
predicted margin:
10
Think this is wrong?
5Score Predictions Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals 27 — Dolphins 16
What happenedBengals 31–24called Bengals by 11 · won by 7
90.48Hit · naive 35.42
Closing line (Oct 11): Bengals by 7, total 44.5 · this 27–16 calls a bigger Bengals win (by 11) and fewer points (43).
How this was scored
score:
31-24
skill:
97.99
they picked:
CIN
season:
2026
accuracy:
90.48
baseline:
35.42
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
7
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.88
predicted margin:
11
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once
58.6naive 32.7

The games in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

Who this take is about

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

Others on the same people

Jason Harmon · Roster Spot Calls · Max Brosmer · Miss 0
Harmon expects the Vikings' quarterback room to stay intact while Kyler Murray is hurt, and predicts Max Brosmer will be released and re-signed to the practice squad since Minnesota won't carry four QBs.
Logan Lazarczyk · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Ahead of the trade deadline, they float three Raiders moves: shipping Kirk Cousins to Minnesota if the Vikings offer a second-round pick, selling Maxx Crosby to Dallas for a first-rounder plus, and acquiring Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr. for a second- or third-round pick.
Logan Lazarczyk · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Lazarczyk expects the Raiders to be sellers before the trade deadline, suggesting Kirk Cousins could be dealt back to the Vikings and that benched interior lineman Jackson Powers-Johnson is a prime candidate to be traded somewhere.
Charean Williams · Roster Spot Calls · Odell Beckham Jr. · Miss 0
Williams writes that after releasing Odell Beckham Jr. to open a roster spot for Kirk Cousins, the Vikings will bring them back on the practice squad.
John Middlekauff · Draft Bust Calls · Caleb Williams · Miss 0
Middlekauff expects either Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson to win this year's MVP, calling them the two best players in the league. They are pessimistic on the Bears, forecasting six or seven wins and saying they'd bet Caleb Williams doesn't work out as a franchise quarterback. They also see Oklahoma's John Mattier as a first-round pick who'll be in the Heisman mix.
Bobby Skinner · Trade and Signing Calls · Stefon Diggs · Miss 0
Skinner predicted Daniel Jones signs with and wins the starting job in Indianapolis, Milton Williams to New England, Lavonte David back to Tampa, Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams to the Giants, DJ Reid to Arizona, Hassan Reddick to Washington and Justin Fields staying in Pittsburgh, plus alternates they had listed.

More score predictions

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 95
Dajani picks the Commanders to edge the Giants 21-20 on Thursday and the Chiefs to beat the Falcons 26-20 in Week 10.
Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Miss 36
Prisco picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 23-14 on Thursday night and the Lions to beat the Patriots 30-24 in Munich.
John Breech · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 90
Breech picks the Commanders to upset the Giants on Thursday night, 24-17, and takes the Texans to beat the Browns 24-16 in Week 10 behind a pass rush that should batter Deshaun Watson.
Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 20-14 on Thursday night and takes the Packers over the Vikings 17-14 in a low-scoring Week 10 game.
Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders at home on Thursday night, projecting a 20-14 final score.
Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Miss 36
Prisco picked the Giants to beat the Commanders at home in the Thursday night Week 10 game, 23-14, citing New York's dominant front seven containing Jayden Daniels.