Spencer Kimball· Nov 3, 2024

Emerson's polling director read the final battleground map as leaning Trump: he expected Pennsylvania, Georgia and Wisconsin to go Trump and put North Carolina in Trump's column by about one to two points, while saying Nevada still leaned to Harris and was the likeliest of the four Sun Belt/Western states to stay blue.

“So to me, anything in Wisconsin that's tied, the conventional wisdom is that Trump will take it because we're underrepresenting.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Megyn Kelly Show · read the original →

5 checkable claims — 4 race winners and 1 race margin — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 5 have settled, averaging 77.6 out of 100, against 16.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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5 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 3, 2024
“but I think Georgia is a pretty strong state for Trump... but it seems to be leaning towards Trump at this time.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-ga
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
it seems to be leaning towards Trump at this time
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Georgia
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
2
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race MarginsNov 3, 2024
“It's probably leaning to Trump by about one to two points, but that's gonna be a lot to overcome considering the situation.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.9a naive guess scored 81.4+6.5 skill
How this was scored
race:
2024-president-nc
election year:
2024
skill:
6.5
topic:
elections
what happened:
3.21
in their words:
leaning to Trump by about one to two points
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
margin_points
whose number:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
87.9
baseline:
81.4
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in North Carolina
decided in the:
general
days before the vote when called:
2
difficulty:
1
they won:
yes
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the certified margin:
3.21
their party:
Republican
their range:
1,2
the naive guess said:
1.35
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 3, 2024
“Now the race is much tighter. It's about a half a point. I still think it leans towards Harris... but that's a state where I think the Democrats can still hold it.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-president-nv
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
I still think it leans towards Harris
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Nevada
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
2
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 3, 2024
“that's a number that, as you take a look at, it looks like Pennsylvania should go towards Trump, and that would suggest he would have some success on election night”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-pa
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
it looks like Pennsylvania should go towards Trump
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
2
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 3, 2024
“So to me, anything in Wisconsin that's tied, the conventional wisdom is that Trump will take it because we're underrepresenting.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-wi
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
anything in Wisconsin that's tied, the conventional wisdom is that Trump will take it
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Wisconsin
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
2
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.