Andrew Erickson#30 of 87 NFL pundits · Aug 23, 2025
Erickson's must-have targets round by round: Nico Collins in round one (1,500 receiving yards if healthy), Drake London as a top-five WR in round two, Omarion Hampton as the Chargers' bell cow in round three, Kenneth Walker as a top-five fantasy back in round four, plus Tetairoa McMillan, Jaylen Waddle, Ricky Pearsall, Jordan Mason, Tucker Kraft, Drake Maye and a set of late-round fliers.
Said on air or in an interview · FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)Hear the original
What Andrew Erickson said
Nico Collins is the guy for me.
- Where it was said
- FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)
- The episode
- FantasyPros - Must-Have Fantasy Football Draft Targets | Expert Picks For EVERY ROUND! (Ep. 1663)
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidAug 22, 2025
- GradedAug 7–19, 2026
Box score, by kind
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sleeper Calls | 7 | 0 | 8 | 0 | |
| Game Outcome Picks | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Positional Finishes | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Player Season Numbers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Depth Chart Calls | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Trade and Signing Calls | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| All | 12 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
How each call scored
25 checkable claims — 15 sleeper calls, 4 depth chart calls, 2 game outcome picks, 2 positional finishes, 1 player season number and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 32 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
24 of 25 have settled so far, averaging 51 out of 100, against 52.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Sleeper Calls7 hits · 8 missesShow ▸Hide ▾
Jordan Mason to outplay his draft cost (round eight)
“Jordan Mason running back for the Minnesota Vikings... George Mason's going to have some big weeks behind this Vikings offensive line.”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- round eight
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Jordan Mason
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB33
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB33
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Drake Maye to outplay his draft cost (round ten)
“i want Drake May. That's who I want as my quarterback in round ten... the best late run quarterback you can draft”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- round ten
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Drake Maye
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- had to beat:
- QB22
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- QB2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Jacory Croskey-Merritt to outplay his draft cost (RB forty one in real time ADP)
“Bill krossky Merritt running back for the Washington Commanders... I think that round eight is probably the most aggressive I would push him up”
0Miss0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- RB forty one in real time ADP
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- −200
- player:
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB24
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB28
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
Jaylen Waddle to outplay his draft cost (round six)
“It's Jalen Wattle round six... I think that his costs and values is going to increase as the season goes on.”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- round six
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Jaylen Waddle
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR48
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR19
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Kenneth Walker III to outplay his draft cost (round four)
“it's Kenneth Walker as my pick in round four. I just think the upside case for him in this Clint Kuback offense is a top five fantasy running back”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- round four
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Kenneth Walker III
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB29
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB21
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Josh Palmer to outplay his draft cost (round fifteen)
“round fifteen my bet on a fifth year wide receiver breakout... Josh Palmer wide receiver for the Buffalo Bills”
0Miss0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- round fifteen
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- −200
- player:
- Josh Palmer
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR76
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR114
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Ricky Pearsall to outplay his draft cost (round seven)
“why I like buying into Pearsaw here in round seven... I think Rickey Piersaw is just one of the easiest clicks that you can make”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- round seven
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Ricky Pearsall
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR81
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR78
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Bhayshul Tuten to outplay his draft cost (round twelve)
“round twelve is Bishal toot And running back for the Jaguars”
0Miss0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- round twelve
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- −200
- player:
- Bhayshul Tuten
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB24
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB48
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
Nico Collins to outplay his draft cost (pick want six through twelve)
“I went for a player that goes outside the top five that out with a pick want six through twelve. You can get this guy... Nico Collins wide receiver.”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- pick want six through twelve
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Nico Collins
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR20
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR9
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Drake London to outplay his draft cost (round two)
“Drake London, that's the guy for me in round two, and I would take him in round one if you forced me to.”
0Miss0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- round two
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- −200
- player:
- Drake London
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR6
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR17
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Marvin Mims Jr. to outplay his draft cost (round fourteen)
“Round fourteen Marvin Mims wide receiver for the Denver Broncos with a full time role... Martin Mims is about to take over the world”
0Miss0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- round fourteen
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- −200
- player:
- Marvin Mims Jr.
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR52
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR70
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Tetairoa McMillan to outplay his draft cost (round five)
“That's Roald McMillan, wide receiver for the Carolina Panthers. I just think that he's being drafted closer to his floor than his ceiling, which I mean he could be a fantasy wide receiver one this year.”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- round five
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Tetairoa McMillan
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR36
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR13
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
Braelon Allen to outplay his draft cost (round thirteen)
“Round thirteen is Bringlan Allen running back for the New York Jets”
0Miss0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- round thirteen
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- −200
- player:
- Braelon Allen
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB51
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB94
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Tucker Kraft to outplay his draft cost (round nine)
“My favorite late round time end, Tucker Craft. I think that he could be a top five Titan when we're drafting next year.”
0Miss0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- round nine
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- −200
- player:
- Tucker Kraft
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- TE
- had to beat:
- TE7
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- TE17
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Omarion Hampton to outplay his draft cost (round three)
“So I went with Omaron Hampton running back for the Los Angeles Chargers because I just want to make a bet on a first round rookie running back”
0Miss0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- round three
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- −200
- player:
- Omarion Hampton
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB24
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB39
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
Game Outcome Picks1 hit · 1 missShow ▸Hide ▾
New England Patriots to beat Dolphins
“Week one, Week two Raiders Dolphins, two matchups that I feel confident that he can win in”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- NE
- score:
- 33-27
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- MIA
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
New England Patriots to beat Raiders
“Week one, Week two Raiders Dolphins, two matchups that I feel confident that he can win in”
0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- LV
- score:
- 20-13
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- NE
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Positional Finishes2 missesShow ▸Hide ▾
Drake London to finish top 5 at his position, by fantasy points
“everything else is wheels off for Drake London to be a top five wide receiver”
Finished #17called #5 · by fantasy points0Miss0 − 8.33 naive = −8.33 × 2 difficulty = −16.67 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- −16.67
- player:
- Drake London
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 8.33
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 6
- actual finish:
- 17
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 5
Kenneth Walker III to finish top 5 at his position, by fantasy points
“if he stays healthy, he's going to be a top off fantasy running back. I'm very convinced of that.”
Finished #21called #5 · by fantasy points0Miss0 − 33.33 naive = −33.33 × 2 difficulty = −66.67 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- −66.67
- player:
- Kenneth Walker III
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 33.33
- position:
- RB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 29
- actual finish:
- 21
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 5
Player Season Numbers1 close callShow ▸Hide ▾
Nico Collins to record 1,500 receiving yards
“lock and load with an alpha stud wide receiver who's gonna put up fifteen hundred yards this season if he stays healthy”
1,117called 1,50048.93Close48.93 − 21.37 naive = 27.56 × 2 difficulty = +55.12 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- naive:
- 677.87
- skill:
- 55.12
- what happened:
- 1117
- player:
- Nico Collins
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 48.93
- baseline:
- 21.37
- they said:
- 1500
- statistic:
- receiving_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 1006
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 349.73
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Depth Chart Calls4 hitsShow ▸Hide ▾
Kenneth Walker III to be 1st on the depth chart
“once he's writing and out there playing, I think that he's going to be their bell cow”
No. 1called No. 1 · by rushing yards100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- SEA
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Kenneth Walker III
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Zach Charbonnet to be 2nd on the depth chart
“I still think that he is going to be just the backup to Ken Walker”
No. 2called No. 2 · by rushing yards100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- SEA
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Zach Charbonnet
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Ricky Pearsall to be 1st on the depth chart
“I think he's going to be the number one wide receiver on this team, at least out of the gates.”
No. 3called No. 1 · by receptions83.33Hit83.33 − 100 naive = −16.67 × 2 difficulty = −33.33 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- −33.33
- player:
- Ricky Pearsall
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 83.33
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- WR
- naive slot:
- 3
- actual slot:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- receptions
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Omarion Hampton to be 1st on the depth chart
“the more optimistic I am about Omaron Hampton is going to be the guy here... continue to use this guy as our bell cow”
No. 2called No. 1 · by rushing yards91.67Hit91.67 − 100 naive = −8.33 × 2 difficulty = −16.67 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- LAC
- skill:
- −16.67
- player:
- Omarion Hampton
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Trade and Signing Calls1 waitingShow ▸Hide ▾
Brian Robinson to move to Washington Commanders
“right now he's still on the Commanders, but all indications are if he's not traded, he's getting cut from this team”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Who this take is about
Jordan Mason, Minnesota Vikings, Drake Maye, New England Patriots, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Washington Commanders, Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins, Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks, Josh Palmer, Buffalo Bills, Ricky Pearsall, San Francisco 49ers, Bhayshul Tuten, Jacksonville Jaguars, Nico Collins, Houston Texans, Drake London, Atlanta Falcons, Marvin Mims Jr., Denver Broncos, Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers, Braelon Allen, New York Jets, Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers, Omarion Hampton, Los Angeles Chargers, Zach Charbonnet, Brian Robinson
Others on the same people
Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman expects Sean Fresch Jr. to clear waivers and return to the Broncos' practice squad, sees Riley Moss back from concussion for the Week 11 game at Las Vegas, and projects newly acquired Daiyan Henley to begin as the third inside linebacker behind Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad before likely moving into a starting role.Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman writes that Riley Moss may sit out the preseason finale against Minnesota but should be available for the Week 1 opener at Kansas City; they also suggest undrafted corners Sean Fresch Jr. and Brent Austin are being evaluated for practice squad spots.Nate Gosney · Trade and Signing Calls · Daiyan Henley · Miss 0
After the Broncos rescinded the trade, Gosney expects Daiyan Henley to remain with the Chargers for the rest of the 2026 season, but believes the awkward fallout has effectively killed any chance of them signing a new contract with Los Angeles after the season.Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 95
Dajani picks the Commanders to edge the Giants 21-20 on Thursday and the Chiefs to beat the Falcons 26-20 in Week 10.Tyler Sullivan · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Sullivan takes the Commanders 24-21 over the Giants on Thursday night and calls for a Steelers upset of the Bengals, 27-24, in Week 10.
More sleeper calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Derek Brown · Sleeper Calls · DeVonta Smith · Hit 100
Derek Brown ("Debro") laid out a slate of wide receiver breakouts — Ricky Pearsall, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Joshua Palmer, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter — while fading Xavier Worthy, Tyreek Hill and the cheap Cleveland/late-round types, and gave their own rankings well ahead of ADP for several of them.Chris Welsh · Sleeper Calls · Tyler Warren · Hit 100
Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.Pat Fitzmaurice · Sleeper Calls · Rashee Rice · Miss 0
Pat Fitzmaurice gave draft-or-pass calls: reluctant drafts on Christian McCaffrey, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan (their WR16), Rashee Rice at a ninth-round price, Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez, Chris Olave, Drake Maye (their QB8) and Tyler Warren, with passes on Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Croskey-Merritt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Hunter, the Rams receivers and Justin Fields.Joe Pisapia · Sleeper Calls · Tyler Warren · Hit 100
Joey P (Joe Pisapia) played draft-or-pass on 2025 fantasy values: they passed on Christian McCaffrey at pick 7, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Hunter and Chris Olave, while drafting RJ Harvey, Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, Puka Nacua, Tyler Warren and a late-round Joe Mixon.Derek Brown · Sleeper Calls · George Pickens · Hit 100
Brown's five-to-one breakout list was Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Tucker Kraft, Ricky Pearsall, George Pickens and Tetairoa McMillan; they forecast Brian Robinson Jr. being cut or traded, Kraft finishing as a top-five/six tight end, Pickens as a top-15 receiver and McMillan spiking for double-digit touchdowns.