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Donnie Druin#7 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 9, 2026

Druin predicts a high-scoring game in which Detroit holds off a late Arizona comeback, picking the Lions 30-24.

Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original

57Close · out of 100
Lions 45–21What happenedcalled Lions by 6 · won by 24
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
57.14This callout of 100
#7Donnie Druin’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Donnie Druin said

Give me: DET 30, AZ 24
Our reading: Detroit Lions 30 — Cardinals 24
Where it was published
Sports Illustrated
The piece
Behind Enemy Lines: Can Lions Contain Cardinals Rookie Running Back?
The original
Read the original
  1. SaidOct 9
  2. PlayedOct 11
  3. GradedOct 12

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 57.1 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Score PredictionsDetroit Lions

    Detroit Lions 30 — Cardinals 24

    What happenedLions 45–21called Lions by 6 · won by 24
    57.14Close · naive 0
    57.14this call0a naive guess57.14better than naive1.78difficulty+101.71skill

    Closing line (Oct 11): Lions by 5.5, total 55.5 · this 30–24 calls a bigger Lions win (by 6) and fewer points (54).

    How this was scored
    score:
    45-21
    skill:
    101.71
    they picked:
    DET
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    57.14
    baseline:
    0
    difficulty:
    1.78
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    24
    weeks left when called:
    14
    naive home margin:
    0.32
    predicted margin:
    6
    Think this is wrong?

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