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Seth WalderSep 18, 2026

Predicts Philadelphia beats Tennessee 34-13.

Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original

60Close · out of 100
Eagles 24–20What happenedcalled Eagles by 21 · won by 4
39.25A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
59.52This callout of 100
+39.34Skillafter difficulty

What Seth Walder said

Seth Walder: Eagles 34, Titans 13
Our reading: Philadelphia Eagles 34 — Titans 13
Where it was published
Sports Illustrated
The piece
Titans vs. Eagles Week 2 Game Picks: Experts Giving Tennessee No Chance for Home Upset
The original
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  1. SaidSep 18
  2. PlayedSep 20
  3. GradedSep 21

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 59.5 out of 100, against 39.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Score PredictionsPhiladelphia Eagles

    Philadelphia Eagles 34 — Titans 13

    What happenedEagles 24–20called Eagles by 21 · won by 4
    59.52Close · naive 39.25

    Closing line (Sep 20): Eagles by 7, total 39.5 · this 34–13 calls a bigger Eagles win (by 21) and more points (47).

    How this was scored
    score:
    24-20
    skill:
    39.34
    they picked:
    PHI
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    59.52
    baseline:
    39.25
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    4
    weeks left when called:
    17
    naive home margin:
    −0.52
    predicted margin:
    21
    Think this is wrong?

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