Parker HurleyAug 17, 2026

Reviewing 49ers rookies after the first preseason game, Hurley says linebacker Jaden Dugger has secured a spot on the roster after starting at MIKE.

Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original

100Hit · out of 100

3 weeks on a 53What happenedsettled

0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge

100This callout of 100

+200Skillafter difficulty

What Parker Hurley said

His roster spot is locked down, and he already jumped second-year linebacker Nick Martin.

Our reading: Jaden Dugger to make the roster

Where it was published: Sports Illustrated
The piece: 49ers Rookie Stock Report After Preseason Opener
The original: Read the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidAug 17
GradedSep 25

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Roster Spot Calls Jaden Dugger San Francisco 49ers
Jaden Dugger to make the roster
What happened3 weeks on a 53
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive2difficulty+200skill
How this was scored
club:
SF
skill:
200
player:
Jaden Dugger
season:
2026
claimed:
he makes the 53
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
3
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
1
weeks on the practice squad:
0
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Who this take is about

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

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