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Greg JenningsOct 16, 2026

Jennings trusted the Packers' defense to beat Dallas and put the Bills on upset alert, taking the Raiders to win that game outright.

Said on air, transcribed by us · First Things First (podcast)Hear the original

1 of 2calls landed1 hit · 1 miss · all settled
50Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls
50A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
2Games calledeveryone’s picks below
0Waitingnot graded yet

What Greg Jennings said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
No. Look. I got the Packers.
Greg Jennings, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
First Things First (podcast)
The episode
Brewers sweep Dodgers, Broncos beat Seahawks, Ohio state vs. Indiana, Upset Alert & Nick’s Picks
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidOct 16
  2. PlayedOct 18
  3. GradedOct 19
  1. 1Las Vegas Raiders to beat Buffalo Bills“And that's the Buffalo Bills. So I'm going with the Raiders... So, yeah, I got the Raiders on upset alert or Bills on upset alert.”
  2. 2Green Bay Packers to beat Dallas Cowboys“No. Look. I got the Packers... And I trust the Packers defense far more than I trust anything about the the Dallas Cowboys defense.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Las Vegas Raiders to beat Buffalo Bills1Game Outcome PicksBills 33–30000
Green Bay Packers to beat Dallas Cowboys2Game Outcome PicksPackers 23–131001000
2 calls · 1 hit · 1 miss · all settled5050

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

2 checkable claims — 2 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 2 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Game Outcome PicksLas Vegas Raiders

    Las Vegas Raiders to beat Buffalo Bills

    What happenedBills 33–30Bills at Raiders
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.72difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Oct 18): Bills by 5.5 · underdog pick, Raiders about 1 in 3 (32%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    BUF
    score:
    33-30
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    LV
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    LV
    difficulty:
    1.72
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    13
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Game Outcome PicksGreen Bay Packers

    Green Bay Packers to beat Dallas Cowboys

    What happenedPackers 23–13Cowboys at Packers
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.72difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Oct 18): Cowboys by 1.5 · a toss-up, Cowboys 51%, Packers 49%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    GB
    score:
    13-23
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    GB
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    GB
    difficulty:
    1.72
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    13
    Think this is wrong?
  3. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once

    50naive 50

The games in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

Who this take is about

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

Others on the same people

More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

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