Connor LivesayFeb 28, 2024
Livesay offered seven bold predictions for the 2024 NFL Combine, including Byron Murphy II rising to a top-15 pick, Quinyon Mitchell emerging as the second cornerback drafted, Rome Odunze becoming WR2 in the class, Brock Bowers running a sub-4.5 40, Chop Robinson posting the fastest-ever edge 10-yard split, Jaylen Wright running the fastest 40 among offensive players, and Tyler Owens posting the fastest 40 and best vertical overall.
Published in writing · The 33rd TeamRead the original
What Connor Livesay said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromMy final bold prediction is Owens running the fastest 40-yard dash and having the best vertical jump.
- Where it was published
- The 33rd Team
- The piece
- 2024 NFL Combine: 7 Bold Predictions Heading Into This Year's Event
- The original
- The copy as archived Apr 22, 2024
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy is the record of what it said.
- SaidFeb 28, 2024
- GradedAug 5, 2026
- 1Rome Odunze to be 2nd wide receiver off the board“3. Washington WR Rome Odunze takes over as WR2”
- 2Tyler Owens to be picked “drafted on Day 3” (picks 101–257)“Though he is expected to be drafted on Day 3, the Texas Tech defensive back is one of the best overall athletes in the draft.”
- 3Quinyon Mitchell to be 2nd cornerback off the board“2. Toledo's Quinyon Mitchell Emerges as CB2 ... Mitchell is in a race to be the second cornerback drafted”
- 4Byron Murphy II to be picked “top-15 pick” (picks 1–15)“1. Texas iDL Byron Murphy II emerges as top-15 pick”
- 5Brock Bowers to make Sub-4.5 second 40-yard dash at NFL Combine“4. Georgia TE Brock Bowers runs a sub 4.5 40”
- 6Chop Robinson to make Fastest ever EDGE 10-yard split at combine (high 1.4s)“5. Penn State's Chop Robinson runs fastest ever EDGE 10-yard split ... I would not be surprised if he posts a number in the high 1.4s”
- 7Jaylen Wright to make Fastest 40-yard dash among offensive players at combine“6. Tennessee RB Jaylen Wright runs fastest 40 on offense”
- 8Tyler Owens to make Fastest 40-yard dash and highest vertical jump at combine“7. Texas Tech S Tyler Owens Posts fastest 40, highest vertical”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rome Odunze to be 2nd wide receiver off the board1 | Position Order Calls | — | 70.71 | 13.2 | +57.51 | |
| Tyler Owens to be picked “drafted on Day 3” (picks 101–257)2 | Mock Draft Picks | Went undrafted | 0 | 50 | — | |
| Quinyon Mitchell to be 2nd cornerback off the board3 | Position Order Calls | — | 70.71 | 25.97 | +44.74 | |
| Byron Murphy II to be picked “top-15 pick” (picks 1–15)4 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 16 | 95.76 | 50 | — | |
| Brock Bowers to make Sub-4.5 second 40-yard dash at NFL Combine5 | Pro Bowl and All-Pro Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Chop Robinson to make Fastest ever EDGE 10-yard split at combine (high 1.4s)6 | Pro Bowl and All-Pro Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Jaylen Wright to make Fastest 40-yard dash among offensive players at combine7 | Pro Bowl and All-Pro Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Tyler Owens to make Fastest 40-yard dash and highest vertical jump at combine8 | Pro Bowl and All-Pro Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| 8 calls · 1 hit · 2 close calls · 1 miss · 4 waiting | 59.3 | 34.8 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive8 checkable claims — 4 pro bowl and all-pro calls, 2 mock draft picks and 2 position order calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
4 of 8 have settled so far, averaging 59.3 out of 100, against 34.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
positional finishTheir call against what actually happened.
1Position Order CallsRome Odunze
Rome Odunze to be 2nd wide receiver off the board
VerdictClose70.71Close · naive 13.270.71this call−13.2a naive guess=57.51better than naive×1difficulty=+57.51skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- naming one of the 35 at random averages 13.2
- skill:
- 57.51
- player:
- Rome Odunze
- season:
- 2023
- zero credit this far off:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 70.71
- baseline:
- 13.2
- position:
- wide receiver
- class size:
- 35
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 3
- predicted order:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Tyler Owens to be picked “drafted on Day 3” (picks 101–257)
What happenedWent undrafted0Miss · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Tyler Owens
- season:
- 2023
- zero credit this far off:
- undrafted
- outcome:
- went undrafted in 2024; later signed with WAS
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- undrafted
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0
- predicted pick:
- drafted on Day 3 (picks 101–257)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
3Position Order CallsQuinyon Mitchell
Quinyon Mitchell to be 2nd cornerback off the board
VerdictClose70.71Close · naive 25.9770.71this call−25.97a naive guess=44.74better than naive×1difficulty=+44.74skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- naming one of the 13 at random averages 25.97
- skill:
- 44.74
- player:
- Quinyon Mitchell
- season:
- 2023
- zero credit this far off:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 70.71
- baseline:
- 25.97
- position:
- cornerback
- class size:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 1
- predicted order:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
4Mock Draft PicksByron Murphy II
Byron Murphy II to be picked “top-15 pick” (picks 1–15)
What happenedWent 1695.76Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Byron Murphy II
- season:
- 2023
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 16
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- top-15 pick (picks 1–15)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
5Pro Bowl and All-Pro CallsBrock Bowers
Brock Bowers to make Sub-4.5 second 40-yard dash at NFL Combine
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
6Pro Bowl and All-Pro CallsChop Robinson
Chop Robinson to make Fastest ever EDGE 10-yard split at combine (high 1.4s)
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
7Pro Bowl and All-Pro CallsJaylen WrightTennessee Titans
Jaylen Wright to make Fastest 40-yard dash among offensive players at combine
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
8Pro Bowl and All-Pro CallsTyler Owens
Tyler Owens to make Fastest 40-yard dash and highest vertical jump at combine
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once
59.3naive 34.8
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
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Carney made a full playoff bracket, picking the Bears, Niners, Rams, Patriots, Jaguars and Texans in the wild card round, then Seahawks and Rams in the NFC divisional, Broncos and Patriots in the AFC, with the Rams beating the Patriots in the Super Bowl. They also gave award picks including Stafford for MVP and Vrabel for Coach of the Year.