Skip to main content
MissedTakes
Menu

Connor Livesay· Feb 28, 2024

Livesay offered seven bold predictions for the 2024 NFL Combine, including Byron Murphy II rising to a top-15 pick, Quinyon Mitchell emerging as the second cornerback drafted, Rome Odunze becoming WR2 in the class, Brock Bowers running a sub-4.5 40, Chop Robinson posting the fastest-ever edge 10-yard split, Jaylen Wright running the fastest 40 among offensive players, and Tyler Owens posting the fastest 40 and best vertical overall.

“My final bold prediction is Owens running the fastest 40-yard dash and having the best vertical jump.”

published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original (as archived Apr 22, 2024) →

The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.

8 checkable claims — 4 pro bowl and all-pro calls, 2 mock draft picks and 2 position order calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 9 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

4 of 8 have settled so far, averaging 59.3 out of 100, against 34.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Their call against what happened

positional finish
2They said
3What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

8 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Position Order CallsRome OdunzeWashington CommandersFeb 28, 2024

    Rome Odunze to be 2nd wide receiver off the board

    “3. Washington WR Rome Odunze takes over as WR2”

    Close · 71Scored 70.71a naive guess scored 13.2+57.51 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2024
    naive:
    naming one of the 35 at random averages 13.2
    skill:
    57.51
    player:
    Rome Odunze
    season:
    2023
    zero at:
    credit halves every two places
    accuracy:
    70.71
    baseline:
    13.2
    position:
    wide receiver
    class size:
    35
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual order:
    3
    predicted order:
    2
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Mock Draft PicksTyler OwensFeb 28, 2024

    Tyler Owens to be picked “drafted on Day 3” (picks 101–257)

    “Though he is expected to be drafted on Day 3, the Texas Tech defensive back is one of the best overall athletes in the draft.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2024
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Tyler Owens
    season:
    2023
    zero at:
    undrafted
    outcome:
    went undrafted in 2024; later signed with WAS
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    undrafted
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    0
    predicted pick:
    drafted on Day 3 (picks 101–257)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

    Think this is wrong?

  • Position Order CallsQuinyon MitchellFeb 28, 2024

    Quinyon Mitchell to be 2nd cornerback off the board

    “2. Toledo's Quinyon Mitchell Emerges as CB2 ... Mitchell is in a race to be the second cornerback drafted”

    Close · 71Scored 70.71a naive guess scored 25.97+44.74 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2024
    naive:
    naming one of the 13 at random averages 25.97
    skill:
    44.74
    player:
    Quinyon Mitchell
    season:
    2023
    zero at:
    credit halves every two places
    accuracy:
    70.71
    baseline:
    25.97
    position:
    cornerback
    class size:
    13
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual order:
    1
    predicted order:
    2
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Mock Draft PicksByron Murphy IIFeb 28, 2024

    Byron Murphy II to be picked “top-15 pick” (picks 1–15)

    “1. Texas iDL Byron Murphy II emerges as top-15 pick”

    Hit · 96Scored 95.76a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2024
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Byron Murphy II
    season:
    2023
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    95.76
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    16
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    95.76
    predicted pick:
    top-15 pick (picks 1–15)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

    Think this is wrong?

  • Pro Bowl and All-Pro CallsTyler OwensFeb 28, 2024

    Tyler Owens to make Fastest 40-yard dash and highest vertical jump at combine

    “7. Texas Tech S Tyler Owens Posts fastest 40, highest vertical”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Pro Bowl and All-Pro CallsBrock BowersFeb 28, 2024

    Brock Bowers to make Sub-4.5 second 40-yard dash at NFL Combine

    “4. Georgia TE Brock Bowers runs a sub 4.5 40”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Pro Bowl and All-Pro CallsJaylen WrightTennessee TitansFeb 28, 2024

    Jaylen Wright to make Fastest 40-yard dash among offensive players at combine

    “6. Tennessee RB Jaylen Wright runs fastest 40 on offense”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Pro Bowl and All-Pro CallsChop RobinsonFeb 28, 2024

    Chop Robinson to make Fastest ever EDGE 10-yard split at combine (high 1.4s)

    “5. Penn State's Chop Robinson runs fastest ever EDGE 10-yard split ... I would not be surprised if he posts a number in the high 1.4s”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

More pro bowl and all-pro calls

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Discussed alongside these