Steve Deace· Nov 7, 2022

On the eve of the midterms Deace projected a 42-seat Republican gain in the House and dismissed the idea that Republicans could take the House without also taking the Senate. He also expected Kari Lake to win the Arizona governorship and suggested Laxalt would win Nevada's Senate race even if his margin were squeezed.

“I'm I'm projecting a 42 seat gain.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Steve Deace Show · read the original →

4 checkable claims — 2 race winners, 1 control of congres and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 4 have settled, averaging 0 out of 100, against 63.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

4 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Control of CongressNov 7, 2022
“is it possible that Republicans only win the house and don't win the senate? No, I don't think that's possible.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2022-senate
who controls it:
Democratic
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“And so maybe Paul Laxalt wins in Nevada by two instead of five.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-nv
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Catherine Cortez Masto
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada
decided in the:
general
they said:
Adam Paul Laxalt
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 7, 2022
“How many how many house seats are you projecting? 230 some? Speaker 2: I'm I'm projecting a 42 seat gain.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 55-55 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
222
skill:
−55
topic:
elections
what happened:
9
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
what they counted:
net seats
accuracy:
0
baseline:
55
they said:
42
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
seats before:
213
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the naive guess said:
0
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“A lot of good people will still win. Yes. Carrie Lake probably still wins, for example.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-governor-az
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Katie Hobbs
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 Arizona gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kari Lake
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.