Spencer Kimball· Nov 8, 2022

Kimball said the House looks set to flip to Republicans, and expected heavy ticket-splitting in New Hampshire, with Republican Sununu winning the governorship by nearly 20 points while Democrats hold the state's Senate seat by three or four points.

“I would agree that the house looks like it's gonna flip to the Republicans”

said on air, transcribed by us · Rising (The Hill) · read the original →

3 checkable claims — 2 race margins and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 3 have settled, averaging 67.8 out of 100, against 2.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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3 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race MarginsNov 8, 2022
“but potentially the Democrats holding that Senate seat by three to four”
Close · 48Scored 48.4a naive guess scored 8.4+40 skill
How this was scored
race:
2022-senate-nh
election year:
2022
skill:
40
topic:
elections
what happened:
9.16
in their words:
by three to four
read as:
as written
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Maggie Hassan
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
margin in points
whose number:
Maggie Hassan
accuracy:
48.4
baseline:
8.4
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire
decided in the:
general
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
they won:
yes
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the certified margin:
9.16
their party:
Democratic
their range:
3 to 4
the naive guess said:
0
Think this is wrong?
Control of CongressNov 8, 2022
“I would agree that the house looks like it's gonna flip to the Republicans based on redistricting, based on systematically incumbent presidents lose... Loses seats during midterm elections.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2022
skill:
100
topic:
elections
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race MarginsNov 8, 2022
“Look at New Hampshire, you've got a Republican in Sununu who's gonna win by nearly 20 points”
Close · 55Scored 55a naive guess scored 0+55 skill
How this was scored
race:
2022-governor-nh
election year:
2022
skill:
55
topic:
elections
what happened:
15.5
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Chris Sununu
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
margin in points
whose number:
Chris Sununu
accuracy:
55
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
20
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
they won:
yes
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the certified margin:
15.5
their party:
Republican
the naive guess said:
0
Think this is wrong?

More race margins

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.