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Gavin CarlsonOct 30, 2026

Carlson predicted a 24-14 Rams win over the Chargers and offered a bold prediction that Aaron Donald would have a big game and record their first sack.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Rams (podcast)Hear the original

88Hit · out of 100
Rams 24–9What happenedcalled Rams by 10 · won by 15
65.99A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
88.1This callout of 100
+35.59Skillafter difficulty

What Gavin Carlson said

But Rams twenty four fourteen, they win the ball game.
Our reading: Los Angeles Rams 24 — chargers 14
Where it was said
Locked On Rams (podcast)
The episode
2 KICKERS: Sean McVay Brings Joshua Karty Back for Kickoffs?! Rams-Chargers KEYS and PREDICTIONS
The original
Hear the original
  1. SaidOct 30
  2. PlayedNov 1
  3. GradedNov 2

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 88.1 out of 100, against 66 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Score PredictionsLos Angeles Rams

    Los Angeles Rams 24 — chargers 14

    What happenedRams 24–9called Rams by 10 · won by 15
    88.1Hit · naive 65.99
    88.1this call65.99a naive guess22.11better than naive1.61difficulty+35.59skill

    Closing line (Nov 1): Rams by 6.5, total 46.5 · this 24–14 calls a bigger Rams win (by 10) and fewer points (38).

    How this was scored
    score:
    9-24
    skill:
    35.59
    they picked:
    LAR
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    88.1
    baseline:
    65.99
    difficulty:
    1.61
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    15
    weeks left when called:
    11
    naive home margin:
    0.72
    predicted margin:
    10
    Think this is wrong?

The game in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

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