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Anthony ArmstrongApr 9, 2026

Armstrong said receiver Jeff Caldwell's athletic traits (6-5 with 4.31 speed) but limited production mean they'll be drafted in the third or fourth round as a developmental prospect.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Commanders (podcast)Hear the original

0Miss · out of 100
Went undraftedWhat happenedsettled
50A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
0This callout of 100
—Skillafter difficulty

What Anthony Armstrong said

his own field production hasn't matched, so he's gonna get picked up in the third, fourth round.
Our reading: Jeff Caldwell to be picked “third, fourth round” (picks 65–140)
The episode
COMMANDERS SQUAD | Mock Draft MADNESS: Commanders Pick at #7 + Trade Scenarios & Sims
The original
Hear the original
  1. SaidApr 9
  2. GradedAug 18

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 0 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Their call against what happened

overall pick
third, fourth round (picks 65–140)They said
undraftedWhat happened

Their call against what actually happened.

  1. Mock Draft PicksJeff Caldwell

    Jeff Caldwell to be picked “third, fourth round” (picks 65–140)

    What happenedWent undrafted
    0Miss · naive 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Jeff Caldwell
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    undrafted
    outcome:
    went undrafted in 2026; later signed with KC
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    undrafted
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    0
    predicted pick:
    third, fourth round (picks 65–140)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score
    Think this is wrong?

Others on the same people

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