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JP Acosta#40 of 87 NFL pundits · Jan 21, 2026

JP leaned toward the Rams beating the Seahawks in the NFC Championship, treated Ty Simpson as the class's first quarterback off the board, and made several draft projections for Senior Bowl and Shrine Bowl prospects.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Pushing the Pile (podcast)Hear the original

0 of 2calls landed1 close call · 1 miss · 4 waiting
35.4Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls
69.9A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
2 of 6Settled4 still waiting
#40JP Acosta’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What JP Acosta said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
I'm kinda leaning Rams.
JP Acosta, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
The episode
Final Predictions For AFC & NFC Championships + Top Players To Watch At Shrine & Senior Bowls
The original
Hear the original
  1. SaidJan 21
  2. GradedAug 13–17
  1. 1Los Angeles Rams to beat Seahawks“I'm kinda leaning Rams. ... I'm gonna lean with the guy that's been there before.”
  2. 2Ty Simpson to be 1st quarterback off the board“QB three, even QB two sort of feels like it's up for grabs right now. Whoever gets drafted after Ty Simpson feels like it could be anyone's guess.”
  3. 3Dante Corleone to be picked “day two”“for a lot of teams that need run stoppers because of where the NFL is going, Corlejo could be a really nice pick on day two”
  4. 4Taylen Green to be picked “potentially late day two, early day three”“we could see him come off the board, potentially late day two, early day three”
  5. 5Jeff Caldwell to be picked “he's gonna get drafted”“If he can really show up in one on ones and make a lot and do a lot of good work, he's gonna get drafted”
  6. 6Dalton Johnson to be picked “going to get drafted”“Dalton Johnson is going to get drafted.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Los Angeles Rams to beat Seahawks1Game Outcome Picks—0100−100
Ty Simpson to be 1st quarterback off the board2Position Order Calls—70.7139.7+31.01
Dante Corleone to be picked “day two”3Mock Draft Picks————
Taylen Green to be picked “potentially late day two, early day three”4Mock Draft Picks————
Jeff Caldwell to be picked “he's gonna get drafted”5Mock Draft Picks————
Dalton Johnson to be picked “going to get drafted”6Mock Draft Picks————
6 calls · 1 close call · 1 miss · 4 waiting35.469.9

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

6 checkable claims — 4 mock draft picks, 1 game outcome pick and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

2 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 35.4 out of 100, against 69.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Where this call stands in the room

Ty Simpson · 2025 season · positional finish

7 calls from 6 pundits between 1 positional finish and 3 positional finish. JP Acosta said 1 positional finish. the room's median is 2 positional finish. what happened: 2 positional finish

JP Acosta — 1 positional finishthe room — 7 calls from 6 punditsmedian 2 positional finishwhat happened — 2 positional finish

Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question, before the answer existed. The bar is what actually happened. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.

  1. 1Game Outcome PicksLos Angeles Rams

    Los Angeles Rams to beat Seahawks

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1difficulty−100skill

    Closing line (Jan 25): Seahawks by 2.5 · underdog pick, Rams 44%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    SEA
    score:
    27-31
    skill:
    −100
    they picked:
    LAR
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    SEA
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?
  2. 2Position Order CallsTy Simpson

    Ty Simpson to be 1st quarterback off the board

    VerdictClose
    70.71Close · naive 39.7
    70.71this call39.7a naive guess31.01better than naive1difficulty+31.01skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    naming one of the 10 at random averages 39.7
    skill:
    31.01
    player:
    Ty Simpson
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    credit halves every two places
    accuracy:
    70.71
    baseline:
    39.7
    position:
    quarterback
    class size:
    10
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual order:
    2
    predicted order:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?
  3. 3Mock Draft PicksDante Corleone

    Dante Corleone to be picked “day two”

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

  4. 4Mock Draft PicksTaylen Green

    Taylen Green to be picked “potentially late day two, early day three”

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

  5. 5Mock Draft PicksJeff Caldwell

    Jeff Caldwell to be picked “he's gonna get drafted”

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

  6. 6Mock Draft PicksDalton Johnson

    Dalton Johnson to be picked “going to get drafted”

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

  7. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once

    35.4naive 69.9

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