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Kmele FosterOct 8, 2026

Foster leans toward Republicans retaining control of the Senate in the midterms, while arguing Republicans will spend heavily and still lose races they should have won.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Tangle (podcast)Hear the original

0Miss · out of 100
Control of CongressThe callsettled
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
0This callout of 100
0Skillafter difficulty

What Kmele Foster said

I'm I'm inclined to think that Republicans might hold the senate.
Kmele Foster’s words, quoted for attribution
Where it was said
Tangle (podcast)
The episode
Suspension of the rules. - Isaac, Kmele and Ari share their election hot takes, a focus group discussion on Abdul El-Sayed, and much more.
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
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  1. SaidOct 8
  2. Election DayNov 3
  3. GradedNov 10

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Control of Congress

    “I'm I'm inclined to think that Republicans might hold the senate.”

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.03difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    no
    election year:
    2026
    skill:
    0
    topic:
    elections
    in their words:
    inclined to think that Republicans might hold the senate
    result from:
    wikipedia-2026: Wikipedia's 2026 election results tables (race summary tables, which relay the Associated Press race calls), read 2026-11-07: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections . Facts only; CC BY-SA.
    chamber:
    2026-senate
    who controls it:
    Democratic
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    they said:
    Republican
    days before the vote when called:
    25
    difficulty:
    1.03
    the naive guess:
    the party in control going in keeps it
    Election Day:
    2026-11-03
    the result is:
    called
    who controlled it before:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?
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More control of congress

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