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AJ Hawk#71 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 11, 2026

AJ Hawk picked the Ravens over the Colts, Carolina to beat Chicago outright, the Bills at Houston, the Bengals over Tampa Bay, the Titans over the Jets, the Raiders over Miami, the Packers at Minnesota and the Cowboys over the Giants.

Said on air, transcribed by us · The Pat McAfee Show (podcast)Hear the original

0Miss · out of 100
Bears 59–37What happenedBears at Panthers
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
0This callout of 100
#71AJ Hawk’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What AJ Hawk said

I like Carolina to probably win this one outright.
Our reading: Carolina Panthers to beat Chicago Bears
The episode
PMS 2.0 1622 - Rams vs. 49ers Recap, NFL Week 1 Preview/Picks, Nick Saban, Bill Cowher, Dana White, Kirk Herbstreit, & AJ Hawk
The original
Hear the original
  1. SaidSep 11
  2. PlayedSep 13
  3. GradedSep 15

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Game Outcome PicksCarolina Panthers

    Carolina Panthers to beat Chicago Bears

    What happenedBears 59–37Bears at Panthers
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Sep 13): Bears by 3 · underdog pick, Panthers 40%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    CHI
    score:
    59-37
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    CAR
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    CAR
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?

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