Kurt WarnerSep 4, 2025
Warner picks the Chiefs to beat the Eagles in the Super Bowl, has the Bengals making the playoffs (with Pittsburgh left out), and names Drake Maye as the second-year quarterback due for the biggest leap.
Said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)Hear the original
What Kurt Warner said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromSo I said the Chiefs were going to beat the Eagles this time around.
- Where it was said
- The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)
- The episode
- Hour 3: Kurt Warner on Rodgers/Steelers & Year-2 QBs, plus Super Bowl Predictions!
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidSep 4, 2025
- GradedAug 13–17, 2026
- 1Kansas City Chiefs to reach the Super Bowl“I actually just went with the same two teams... So I said the Chiefs were going to beat the Eagles this time around.”
- 2Philadelphia Eagles to reach the Super Bowl“So I said the Chiefs were going to beat the Eagles this time around.”
- 3Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl“So I said the Chiefs were going to beat the Eagles this time around.”
- 4Cincinnati Bengals to make the playoffs“I put the Bengals in. Steelers out with Steelers out Bengals in in that segment”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs to reach the Super Bowl1 | Conference Champions | NE and SEA won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Philadelphia Eagles to reach the Super Bowl2 | Conference Champions | NE and SEA won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl3 | Super Bowl Picks | SEA won it | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cincinnati Bengals to make the playoffs4 | Playoff Picks | Missed the playoffs | 0 | 100 | −200 | |
| 4 calls · 4 misses · all settled | 0 | 25 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive4 checkable claims — 2 conference champions, 1 playoff pick and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 4 have settled, averaging 0 out of 100, against 25 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Conference ChampionsKansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs to reach the Super Bowl
What happenedNE and SEA wonpicked KC0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE, SEA
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
2Conference ChampionsPhiladelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles to reach the Super Bowl
What happenedNE and SEA wonpicked PHI0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- PHI
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE, SEA
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
3Super Bowl PicksKansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl
What happenedSEA won itpicked KC0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champion:
- SEA
- runner up:
- NE
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
4Playoff PicksCincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals to make the playoffs
What happenedMissed the playoffs0Miss · naive 1000this call−100a naive guess=−100worse than naive×2difficulty=−200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- CIN
- skill:
- −200
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once
0naive 25
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.Joshua Poniatowski · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Poniatowski names several trade targets, predicting Malik Willis underperforms this week against New England, that Omarion Hampton could become a viable RB2 if Adam Gase takes over play-calling, that Josh Downs gets traded (ideally to Kansas City, where they'd be a top-24 WR), that Brian Thomas Jr. could be dealt to the Rams or 49ers, and that Travis Kelce remains a consistent weekly TE.Jordan Dajani · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
After reporting that Colts receiver Josh Downs requested a trade, they identify five clubs as plausible landing spots for them: the Rams, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders, and suggests Las Vegas could also give them a long-term extension.Mike Kadlick · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Kadlick names the Chiefs, Patriots and 49ers as the three best trade landing spots for Colts wide receiver Josh Downs ahead of the Nov. 10 deadline.
More conference champions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Damonza Byrd · Conference Champions · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
The co-host picks the Seahawks to beat the Rams in the NFC Championship game, and says they believe New England will win in Denver even though they are taking the Broncos with the points.Nick Wright · Conference Champions · New England Patriots · Hit 100
The host picks the Rams to beat the Seahawks in the NFC Championship game and believes the winner of that game wins the Super Bowl, i.e. that this is the Rams' year; they also pick New England to win in Denver despite taking the Broncos with the points, and says Stafford is winning MVP. They call Sean McVay the second-best coach in the NFL.Nick Wright · Conference Champions · Denver Broncos · Close 50
Wright picked the Broncos to beat the Patriots in a low-scoring AFC Championship game (17-16), said Sean Payton would coach Denver to the Super Bowl, picked the Rams to win outright in Seattle 31-20, believes the winner of the NFC game wins the Super Bowl with the Rams the better team, and expects Matt Stafford to be named league MVP.AJ Hawk · Conference Champions · Los Angeles Rams · Close 50
Hawk picked the Patriots to win in Denver despite liking Stidham and the Broncos defense, and in the NFC they stuck with the Rams, saying Stafford gets to the Super Bowl.Derek Murphy · Conference Champions · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Bone said after watching film that Seattle will handle the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, and that the Seahawks are going to the Super Bowl.