AJ Hawk#71 of 87 NFL pundits · Jan 23, 2026
Hawk picked the Patriots to win in Denver despite liking Stidham and the Broncos defense, and in the NFC they stuck with the Rams, saying Stafford gets to the Super Bowl.
Said on air, transcribed by us · The Pat McAfee Show (podcast)Hear the original
What AJ Hawk said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI think it's gonna be one of those iconic days in Foxborough. Give me the Patriots
- Where it was said
- The Pat McAfee Show (podcast)
- The episode
- PMS 2.0 1493 - NFL Conference Championship Weekend Preview/Picks, Adam Schefter, Bill Cowher, Shams Charania, Jim Cantore, & AJ Hawk
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidJan 23
- GradedAug 14–17
- 1Los Angeles Rams to reach the Super Bowl“I like this LA Rams football team. I like Puka. I love what the defense can do, and I think Stafford is having a magical unit. I think he gets to the Super Bowl.”
- 2New England Patriots to beat Broncos“I think they will generate plenty of pressure, but I think it's gonna be one of those iconic days in Foxborough. Give me the Patriots”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams to reach the Super Bowl1 | Conference Champions | NE and SEA won | 50 | 0 | +50 | |
| New England Patriots to beat Broncos2 | Game Outcome Picks | — | 100 | 0 | +100 | |
| 2 calls · 1 hit · 1 close call · all settled | 75 | 0 | ||||
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive2 checkable claims — 1 conference champion and 1 game outcome pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 2 have settled, averaging 75 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Conference ChampionsLos Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams to reach the Super Bowl
What happenedNE and SEA wonpicked LAR50Close · naive 050this call−0a naive guess=50better than naive×1difficulty=+50skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 50
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE, SEA
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- yes
2Game Outcome PicksNew England Patriots
New England Patriots to beat Broncos
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1difficulty=+100skillClosing line (Jan 25): Patriots by 3.5 · favorite pick, Patriots about 2 in 3 (64%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- NE
- score:
- 10-7
- skill:
- 100
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- DEN
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once
75naive 0
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Colin Cowherd · Trade and Signing Calls · Matthew Stafford · Hit 100
Cowherd predicts Matt Stafford stays with the Rams rather than moving on, and says Travis Hunter may underachieve because they're being asked to play both ways — Cowherd doubts they're a No. 1 receiver and would slot them as a No. 2 receiver while being a No. 1 corner.Colin Cowherd · Trade and Signing Calls · Matthew Stafford · Hit 100
Cowherd believes Matt Stafford's public negotiation posturing means he ultimately stays in Los Angeles, and he flags Travis Hunter as a high draft pick who could underachieve because trying to play both cornerback and receiver full-time will hurt him.Pat Fitzmaurice · Score Predictions · New England Patriots · Miss 14
Fitzmaurice predicted a 24-21 Patriots win over the Packers, said they would not be surprised if Jonathan Taylor were inactive amid trade talk, pegged Jonah Coleman as an RB22 rest-of-season value, expected Evan Hull to be Arizona's backup back, and saw Kerby Joseph returning in Week 10 or 11.Kevin Wildes · Game Outcome Picks · New England Patriots · Miss 0
Wildes took Minnesota over Buffalo, predicted a comfortable roughly 10-point New England win over Green Bay, and switched their Super Bowl matchup to Jaguars–Bears.Nick Wright · Game Outcome Picks · New England Patriots · Miss 0
Wright argued the Jaguars are the AFC's most complete team, calling them the considerable favorite for the No. 1 seed and the only club essentially locked into the playoffs. They also picked Tampa Bay to upset Chicago, had Kansas City sweeping its next three games, liked New England over Green Bay by about a field goal, and updated their Super Bowl matchup to Chiefs–49ers.Eric Mangini · Game Outcome Picks · New England Patriots · Miss 0
Mangini picked New England to beat Green Bay by more than a field goal, flagged Tampa Bay as their upset alert over Chicago, expects Kansas City to handle the Jets, took Buffalo over Minnesota, backed Cincinnati over Atlanta in Madrid, and updated their Super Bowl to Rams–Bengals.
More conference champions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Damonza Byrd · Conference Champions · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
The co-host picks the Seahawks to beat the Rams in the NFC Championship game, and says they believe New England will win in Denver even though they are taking the Broncos with the points.Nick Wright · Conference Champions · Denver Broncos · Close 50
Wright picked the Broncos to beat the Patriots in a low-scoring AFC Championship game (17-16), said Sean Payton would coach Denver to the Super Bowl, picked the Rams to win outright in Seattle 31-20, believes the winner of the NFC game wins the Super Bowl with the Rams the better team, and expects Matt Stafford to be named league MVP.Derek Murphy · Conference Champions · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Bone said after watching film that Seattle will handle the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, and that the Seahawks are going to the Super Bowl.Gregg Rosenthal · Conference Champions · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Rosenthal picks the Patriots to beat the Broncos in a close, low-scoring AFC Championship in Denver (while liking Denver to cover the 4.5 points), takes the Seahawks over the Rams in a defensive NFC Championship they peg around 23-19, and forecasts a Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl.Richard Sherman · Conference Champions · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Sherman picks the Seahawks to beat the Rams comfortably at home, 27-17, with a defensive score, and says the winner of that NFC Championship game will win the Super Bowl. They also pick the Patriots to win comfortably in Denver, 21-15, and assumes Matthew Stafford will be named league MVP.