Carl Cannon· Oct 28, 2024
Arguing against the idea that Trump could win the national popular vote while losing the electoral college, he said Harris will carry California by at least 4 million votes and New York by at least 1.5 million.
“Kamala Harris is gonna carry her home state by 4,000,000 votes or more.”
said on air, transcribed by us · RealClearPolitics Podcast · read the original →
2 checkable claims — 2 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
All 2 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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2 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Race WinnersOct 28, 2024
“She's gonna carry Donald Trump's home state by a million and a half votes or more.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president-ny
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- in their words:
- carry Donald Trump's home state by a million and a half votes or more
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Kamala Harris
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in New York
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Kamala Harris
- days before the vote when called:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
- Race WinnersOct 28, 2024
“Kamala Harris is gonna carry her home state by 4,000,000 votes or more.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president-ca
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- in their words:
- carry her home state by 4,000,000 votes or more
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Kamala Harris
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in California
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Kamala Harris
- days before the vote when called:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Erick-Woods EricksonRace WinnersHit · 100Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours.
- Erick-Woods EricksonRace WinnersHit · 100Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him.
- Lanny DavisRace WinnersMiss · 0Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency.
- Sam WangRace WinnersMiss · 0Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined.
- Steve DeaceRace WinnersHit · 100On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%.
- Henry OlsenRace WinnersHit · 100Olsen's final call: Harris narrowly wins the national popular vote while Trump wins the electoral college 297-241, taking six of the seven swing states, with Michigan the one he is least likely to crack. He also forecast Republicans ending with 54-55 Senate seats and holding a narrow House majority.