Paul PabstFeb 7, 2025

Picked the Eagles to win the Super Bowl 27-24 in overtime with Jalen Hurts as MVP.

Said on air or in an interview · The Dan Patrick Show (podcast)Hear the original

2 of 3calls landed2 hits · 1 close call · all settled

88.1Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls

37.5A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

3 of 3Settlednone still waiting

0Waitingnot graded yet

What Paul Pabst said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

I'm gonna give it to Jalen Hurt's twenty seven to twenty four Eagles in overtime.

Paul Pabst, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: The Dan Patrick Show (podcast)
The episode: Hour 3 - Super Bowl picks and headlines, Josh Jacobs
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

SaidFeb 7, 2025
GradedAug 5–Oct 9, 2026

1Jalen Hurts to win Super Bowl MVP“I'm gonna give it to Jalen Hurt's twenty seven to twenty four Eagles in overtime.”
2Philadelphia Eagles 27 — Chiefs 24“I'm gonna give it to Jalen Hurt's twenty seven to twenty four Eagles in overtime.”
3Philadelphia Eagles to win the Super Bowl“twenty seven to twenty four Eagles in overtime”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Jalen Hurts to win Super Bowl MVP¹	Award Picks	Jalen Hurts won	100	0	+100
Philadelphia Eagles 27 — Chiefs 24²	Score Predictions	—	64.29	62.56	+1.72
Philadelphia Eagles to win the Super Bowl³	Super Bowl Picks	PHI won it	100	50	+50
3 calls · 2 hits · 1 close call · all settled			88.1	37.5

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

3 checkable claims — 1 award pick, 1 score prediction and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 3 have settled, averaging 88.1 out of 100, against 37.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Award Picks Jalen Hurts Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts to win Super Bowl MVP
What happenedJalen Hurts won
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1difficulty+100skill
How this was scored
award:
super_bowl_mvp
naive:
the naive pick was Patrick Mahomes, who won it the year before
skill:
100
player:
Jalen Hurts
season:
2024
who won:
Jalen Hurts
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
2Score Predictions Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles 27 — Chiefs 24
VerdictClose
64.29Close · naive 62.56
64.29this call62.56a naive guess1.73better than naive1difficulty+1.72skill
Closing line (Feb 9): Chiefs by 1.5, total 48.5 · this 27–24 calls a Eagles win (by 3; the line gave the Eagles 48%) and more points (51).
How this was scored
score:
22-40
skill:
1.72
they picked:
PHI
season:
2024
accuracy:
64.29
baseline:
62.56
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
18
weeks left when called:
0
naive home margin:
2.28
predicted margin:
3
Think this is wrong?
3Super Bowl Picks Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles to win the Super Bowl
What happenedPHI won itpicked PHI
100Hit · naive 50
100this call50a naive guess50better than naive1difficulty+50skill
How this was scored
skill:
50
they picked:
PHI
season:
2024
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
champion:
PHI
runner up:
KC
the naive pick:
KC
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
88.1naive 37.5