Lakshya Jain· Sep 28, 2026
Jain says that while his numbers point to a Democratic Senate majority, his gut tells him Republicans will hold the Senate. His own forecast gives Democrats a 60% chance of winning the Senate and an 88% chance of winning the House, has Democrats favored in Alaska's Senate race, and rates Minnesota's Senate race as likely Democratic.
“But then, like, if you actually ask me what I think is gonna happen, I'm, like, pretty sure the Republicans hold it.”
said on air, transcribed by us · GD Politics (podcast) · read the original →
5 checkable claims — 3 chamber control and 2 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.
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5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Chamber ControlSep 28, 2026
“if you actually ask me what I think is gonna happen, I'm, like, pretty sure the Republicans hold it”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersSep 28, 2026
“Alaska where I think Democrats are a little bit more favored and Nate thinks that, you know, they're a slight underdog”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersSep 28, 2026
“I don't expect Democrats to lose Minnesota. I really do not expect Democrats to lose Minnesota. In fact, we have that race as likely Democratic.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Chamber ControlSep 28, 2026
“your forecast, which currently shows Democrats with a 60% chance of winning the senate and an 88% chance of winning the house”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Chamber ControlSep 28, 2026
“your forecast, which currently shows Democrats with a 60% chance of winning the senate and an 88% chance of winning the house”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
More chamber control
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Erick-Woods EricksonChamber ControlHit · 100Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours.
- Carl CannonChamber ControlHit · 100Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio.
- Sam WangChamber ControlMiss · 0Combining generic ballot polling with special election results, Wang gives Democrats roughly an 8-in-9 chance of winning the national House vote and taking the House majority, and projects a seat split of about 224 Democrats to 211 Republicans in a very closely divided chamber.
- Henry OlsenChamber ControlHit · 100Olsen's final call: Harris narrowly wins the national popular vote while Trump wins the electoral college 297-241, taking six of the seven swing states, with Michigan the one he is least likely to crack. He also forecast Republicans ending with 54-55 Senate seats and holding a narrow House majority.
- David PakmanChamber ControlHit · 100Reviewing the final 2024 forecasts, Pakman said the Senate outcome was essentially settled and stated his own expectation that Republicans would win control of the chamber.
- Erick-Woods EricksonChamber ControlHit · 100He predicted Republicans would gain at least two Senate seats and take control of the chamber, and that the GOP would hold the House with its majority growing to roughly 225 or 230 seats.